Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-31 09:25 EST · data as of 2026-08-28
Portfolio Value
$83,973.00
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-31 9:25 AM EST
Today's P&L
$-171.35 (-0.20%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-16,027.00 (-16.03%)
Cash Available
$10,039.40

HMM Regime Overlay MONITOR

Regime
LOW-VOL
Confidence
59.9%
Memory Rotation 25% · Maple 20% · Earnings Momentum 15% · Bond Rotation 5% · GPU Tilt 5% · Ndx Momentum 5% · Hormuz Carry 5% · BTC Regime Gate 5% · Braided-Delta 5% · Waterhole 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 5%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; percentages shown = canonical allocator targets (hmm_overlay itself is monitor-only, not wired to execution) · updated 2026-08-31 12:02 AM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
1.95
total vol risk
Sortino
3.43
downside only
Calmar
9.12
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-1.8%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+1.42%
trailing 24 trading days (Alpaca 1M history window)
Trade Win Rate
66%
80 wins / 122 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-28.

Cumulative P&L LIVE PAPER

$-15,405.01
122 closed round-trips · net realized P&L, FIFO-matched fills
Realized P&L of each closed round-trip (sell matched to earlier buys, FIFO) summed in exit-date order. Cash-venue round-trips (BIL/SGOV/SHV) and sub-$25 dust trades are excluded, same as the Strategy Summary. Unrealized positions are not included. Not a backtest.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 122 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-15,405.01
all closed trades
Win Rate
65.57%
80 wins / 122 closed
Profit Factor
0.38
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
122
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-126.27
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 25 of 122 (20.5% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$-23.13▲ $129.72
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
68.00%▲ 3.1pp
17 wins / 25 OOS
Profit Factor
0.34▼ 0.04
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
N/A— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
25▼ 72
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▼ 10.63%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
DIG Memory Rotation 248.989 $67.06 $67.16 $16,722.10 $24.82 (+0.15%)
BIL Memory Rotation 169.051 $91.61 $91.66 $15,495.87 $8.93 (+0.06%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 6.932 $714.23 $714.57 $4,953.37 $2.35 (+0.05%)
BNS Maple 45.5999 $94.31 $92.39 $4,212.98 $-87.66 (-2.04%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $204.98 $4,024.74 $-210.23 (-4.96%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $152.31 $3,993.33 $354.17 (+9.73%)
DELL Earnings Momentum 7.5467 $455.50 $456.11 $3,442.11 $4.60 (+0.13%)
ECAT Earnings Momentum 216.6043 $15.87 $15.40 $3,335.71 $-101.80 (-2.96%)
SOXX GPU Tilt 6.1828 $519.23 $509.30 $3,148.91 $-61.37 (-1.91%)
FIVE — 11.1089 $255.00 $242.01 $2,688.47 $-144.30 (-5.09%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $258.00 $2,613.51 $40.17 (+1.56%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $75.31 $2,035.75 $-100.02 (-4.68%)
SMH GPU Tilt 3.1099 $566.81 $554.16 $1,723.39 $-39.35 (-2.23%)
ENB Maple 29.5347 $50.39 $50.21 $1,482.94 $-5.29 (-0.36%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $38.45 $1,140.30 $72.66 (+6.81%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $566.99 $991.09 $-76.55 (-7.17%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $253.00 $615.48 $110.25 (+21.82%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $87.85 $510.29 $5.05 (+1.00%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $124.00 $502.59 $-2.65 (-0.53%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $204.23 $170.19 $-3.73 (-2.15%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $121.00 $107.26 $0.39 (+0.37%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $62.19 $23.23 $-0.80 (-3.32%)
Last updated 2026-08-31 9:25 AM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-31 4:02 AM ECAT BUY 216.6043 $15.87 Earnings Momentum
2026-08-30 8:00 PM DELL BUY 7.5467 $455.50 Earnings Momentum
2026-08-28 11:11 AM SMH BUY 0.0555 $564.61 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:11 AM SOXX BUY 0.0606 $518.03 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:10 AM SMH BUY 0.0644 $565.11 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:10 AM SOXX BUY 0.0696 $518.50 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:09 AM SMH BUY 0.0733 $565.27 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:09 AM SOXX BUY 0.0762 $518.49 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:08 AM SMH BUY 0.065 $565.02 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:08 AM SOXX BUY 0.0697 $518.27 GPU Tilt

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → MU · momentum 13.34% · VIX 14.43
OFFENSIVE: MU above SMA80 with 20d momentum=13.34%. VIX=14.4; vol-scaled weight=54.8% (20d realized vol=54.8%, target=30%); rerisk_gate: 30Y -7bp/5d <= 0bp, target_vol 25%→30% · Re-risk gate: 30Y -7bp/5d <= 0bp, target_vol 25%→30%
Allocation 25% · deployed $32,217.97 (38.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$33.75
Holdings: DIG $16,722.10 · BIL $15,495.87
Updated 2026-08-31 12:02 AM EST
Maple Sleeve LIVE PAPER
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · deployed $14,014.65 (16.7% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$46.86
Holdings: BNS $4,212.98 · AEM $4,024.74 · WPM $3,993.33 · ENB $1,482.94 · RY $170.19 · TD $107.26 · TRP $23.23
Updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: 10Y -1.8bp/5d <= +15bp, QQQ unchanged
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,953.37 (5.9% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$2.35
Holdings: QQQ $4,953.37
Updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → DELL, ECAT
Allocation 15% · deployed $10,944.96 (13.0% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-201.11
Holdings: DELL $3,442.11 · ECAT $3,335.71 · BAH $2,035.75 · EXLS $1,140.30 · LMT $991.09
Updated 2026-08-28 9:02 PM EST
GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
OFFENSIVE → SOXX, SMH
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,872.30 (5.8% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-100.72
Holdings: SOXX $3,148.91 · SMH $1,723.39
Updated 2026-08-27 8:43 PM EST
Braided-Delta LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY timing sleeve — sector residual-dispersion braid plus breadth and basket confirmation; close signal executes next open. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
long → SPY
Holding SPY from 2026-07-28; no frozen exit condition at 2026-08-28 close
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
Waterhole LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY stress ladder — robust SPY volatility/drawdown and TLT-return composite; 0/40/70/100% exposure. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
partial → SPY, BIL
Waterhole P<0.5 70% band: P=+0.088; target 70% SPY / 30% BIL at the next open
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
BTC Regime Gate LIVE PAPER
EMA20d>EMA200d long/cash timing of BTC — OFFENSIVE=IBIT (spot BTC ETF), DEFENSIVE=BIL. Backtest 4.66y (USDT+USDC, 25bp costs): +22.6% CAGR / -32.6% maxDD vs B&H +11.6% / -67.6%; ~1.8 flips/yr. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
OFFENSIVE → IBIT
EMA20d > EMA200d (spread +140bp) — long IBIT
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 0.0 · 0 candidates · feeds: polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
No pending trade
Last run 2026-08-31 8:48 AM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
VNQ Reversion ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-31 9:15 AM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
0.0
Feeds Used
polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
reddit, twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Monday, 2026-08-31
CISS 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback -25.51% and runup -42.72% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FRO 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.98% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
Tuesday, 2026-09-01
DELL 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.18% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -7.04% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
CRDO 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.32% and runup -10.45% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GTLB 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.5% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
Wednesday, 2026-09-02
ECAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days TRIGGERED Pullback -0.31% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -0.58% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AGX 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -7.26% and runup -27.75% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
AI 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.34% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
AVGO 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.8% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BCAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.84% and runup 0.88% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BSTZ 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 2.17% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
CAL 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -3.72% and runup -6.66% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CXM 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 6.06% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 18.43% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
DAKT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.03% and runup -5.44% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FIVE 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -4.64% and runup -1.08% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GIII 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.08% and runup -1.3% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GOLD 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.84% and runup 3.52% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-28 9:02 PM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
1 / 5
Open Legs
2 / 2
Signal
2026-08-28 9:02 PM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
DELL OPEN $456.24 (est.) $485.90 $431.15 $456.11 $4.60 (+0.13%)
ECAT OPEN $15.39 (est.) $16.39 $14.54 $15.40 $-101.80 (-2.96%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET

GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER

H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL. Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
OFFENSIVE
Target Book
SOXX 60% / SMH 40%
Signal
2026-08-27 8:43 PM
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
H100 Current $/GPU-hr20d Ago20d Momentum20d Z-Score5d Avg Return
$2.76 $2.68 +3.0% +0.57 +0.77%
Z-score above +0.5 with rising H100 → offensive (60% SOXX / 40% SMH) · below −0.5 with falling H100 → defensive (100% BIL) · otherwise neutral half book · Today: Z +0.57 → OFFENSIVE

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
65.8%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$3.01
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.03$1.03-18.1%38.0%-2.6%
B200$6.05$6.05+13.3%58.5%+6.5%
H100 SXM$3.01$3.01+5.6%65.6%+17.5%
H200$4.50$4.50+9.5%94.9%-3.7%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.3%72.0%+8.8%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.4622026-08-29
Openai$0.2422026-08-29
Google$0.5242026-08-29
Deepseek$0.0912026-08-29
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — trailing 24 trading days (Alpaca 1M history window) LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 28, 2026 · page generated August 31, 2026 at 09:25 AM ET
Trailing Days
24
Total Return
+1.42%
Sharpe
1.95
Sortino
3.43
Calmar
9.12
Max DD
-1.75%
Trade Win Rate
66%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Hormuz Carry $795 +36.74% 3.28 5.76 232.46 -26.9% 53% +25.8% 19
Maple $4,642 +11.82% 2.52 2.57 15.55 -13.4% 64% +8.3% 25
Earnings Momentum $6,727 +8.77% 2.20 4.17 12.98 -10.3% 48% +5.1% 25
Shipping $1,787 +7.04% 3.27 8.23 42.76 -5.6% 57% +4.4% 14
Bond Rotation $5,213 +6.34% 2.54 4.35 13.97 -6.1% 44% +3.4% 25
Unattributed $2,105 +1.79% 1.11 1.50 10.06 -11.0% 33% +13.4% 6
Memory Rotation $10,327 +0.71% 0.39 0.94 0.64 -11.6% 32% +10.2% 25
Trump Tweet $1,804 -1.72% -0.69 -0.60 -2.39 -8.6% 53% +3.1% 19
DRAM $22,153 -2.37% -1.96 -1.97 -6.82 -4.9% 40% +2.6% 15
GPU Tilt $360 -21.54% -8.81 — -4.55 -22.0% 33% +0.6% 3
Portfolio row: actual Alpaca paper-account equity (1M history window). Strategy rows: P&L attributed per sleeve from the real Alpaca fill timeline × daily closes (realized + unrealized, BIL/SHV cash at 0%). Through August 28, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
25%
$32,217.97
Bond Rotation
5%
$4,953.37
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$14,014.65
Earnings Momentum
15%
$10,944.96
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
GPU Tilt
5%
$4,872.30
BTC Regime Gate
5%
$0.00
Braided-Delta
5%
$0.00
Waterhole
5%
$0.00
Available Cash: $10,039.40 Total Deployed: $73,933.60 / $83,973.00
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $6,930.34

Trading Discipline SCORE 80

80 VERY GOOD
score history builds one point per dashboard generation
✓ Max Daily Loss worst day -1.07% vs -2.5% limit
✓ Max Drawdown -1.75% vs -10.0% limit
✓ Guard Hygiene no active alerts
✓ Active Trading Days 23 of last 24 sessions vs 16 minimum
✗ Profit Target +1.42% trailing 30 sessions vs +2.0% target
✓ No Margin buying power $10,039 vs cash $10,039
✗ Allocation Drift 7 sleeve(s) beyond ±2.5pp of target
Score = 100 minus severity-weighted penalties (daily loss, drawdown, guard alerts, idle sessions, profit shortfall, margin use, allocation drift). Objectives shown "—" are unscored pending data. Built 2026-08-31.

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-31 09:25 EST