Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-27 22:00 EST · data as of 2026-08-26
Portfolio Value
$84,832.60
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-27 10:00 PM EST
Today's P&L
$109.12 (+0.13%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,167.40 (-15.17%)
Cash Available
$21,802.16

HMM Regime Overlay CURRENT POLICY

Regime
LOW-VOL
Confidence
86.4%
Memory Rotation 35% · Bond Rotation 25% · Trump Tweet 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 35%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; allocations resolved from current hmm_overlay policy · updated 2026-08-27 9:30 PM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
4.19
total vol risk
Sortino
8.56
downside only
Calmar
36.22
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-3.2%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+7.30%
23 days live
Trade Win Rate
65%
69 wins / 106 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-26.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 106 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-15,286.98
all closed trades
Win Rate
65.09%
69 wins / 106 closed
Profit Factor
0.38
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
106
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-144.22
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 22 of 106 (20.8% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$-9.28▲ $170.28
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
72.73%▲ 9.6pp
16 wins / 22 OOS
Profit Factor
0.78▲ 0.41
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
N/A— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
22▼ 62
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▲ 111.07%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
BIL Memory Rotation 219.953 $91.60 $91.65 $20,158.69 $10.65 (+0.05%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 17.932 $713.79 $721.00 $12,928.94 $129.36 (+1.01%)
MU Memory Rotation 8.5497 $949.40 $923.90 $7,899.09 $-218.02 (-2.69%)
BNS Maple 45.5999 $94.31 $92.93 $4,237.60 $-63.03 (-1.47%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $215.39 $4,229.14 $-5.83 (-0.14%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $158.10 $4,145.18 $506.02 (+13.91%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $257.85 $2,611.99 $38.65 (+1.50%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $74.88 $2,024.13 $-111.64 (-5.23%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $38.18 $1,132.29 $64.65 (+6.06%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $566.00 $989.36 $-78.28 (-7.33%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $253.09 $615.70 $110.47 (+21.87%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $89.71 $521.10 $15.86 (+3.14%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $127.20 $515.56 $10.32 (+2.04%)
SOXX GPU Tilt 0.439 $522.77 $523.99 $230.04 $0.54 (+0.23%)
SMH GPU Tilt 0.4031 $569.38 $570.41 $229.92 $0.41 (+0.18%)
DIG Memory Rotation 3.3885 $67.90 $66.33 $224.76 $-5.32 (-2.31%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $204.54 $170.45 $-3.47 (-2.00%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $121.09 $107.34 $0.47 (+0.44%)
ENB Maple 0.7207 $51.55 $49.94 $35.99 $-1.16 (-3.12%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $62.05 $23.17 $-0.85 (-3.54%)
Last updated 2026-08-27 10:00 PM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-27 9:31 PM DIG BUY 3.3885 $67.90 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:31 PM SMH BUY 0.4031 $569.38 GPU Tilt
2026-08-27 9:31 PM SOXX BUY 0.439 $522.77 GPU Tilt
2026-08-27 9:35 AM BIL BUY 52.8564 $91.64 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:34 AM MU BUY 8.5497 $949.40 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:33 AM DIG SELL 218.783 $66.40 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:15 AM BNS BUY 44.912 $94.40 Maple
2026-08-26 11:40 AM CMG SELL 61.5141 $37.32 Earnings Momentum
2026-08-26 9:32 AM DIG BUY 55.6577 $65.41 Memory Rotation
2026-08-26 9:32 AM BIL BUY 53.2896 $91.63 Memory Rotation

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → DIG · momentum 10.40% · VIX 14.51
OFFENSIVE: DIG above SMA80 with 20d momentum=10.40%. VIX=14.5; vol-scaled weight=52.1% (20d realized vol=48.0%, target=25%); rerisk_gate: inactive until 2026-08-29, target_vol=25% · Re-risk gate: inactive until 2026-08-29, target_vol=25%
Allocation 35% · deployed $28,282.54 (33.3% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-212.69
Holdings: BIL $20,158.69 · MU $7,899.09 · DIG $224.76
Updated 2026-08-27 9:30 PM EST
Maple Sleeve PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · account holdings $12,948.87 (15.3% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$432.15
Holdings: BNS $4,237.60 · AEM $4,229.14 · WPM $4,145.18 · RY $170.45 · TD $107.34 · ENB $35.99 · TRP $23.17
Updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: 10Y -2.4bp/5d <= +15bp, QQQ unchanged
Allocation 15% · deployed $12,928.94 (15.2% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$129.36
Holdings: QQQ $12,928.94
Updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
VNQ Reversion PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
HOLD
HOLD in BIL/cash: RSI14 50.99 is between 35 and 65
Allocation 5% · account holdings $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → GEHC, CMG
Allocation 15% · deployed $4,145.78 (4.9% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-125.27
Holdings: BAH $2,024.13 · EXLS $1,132.29 · LMT $989.36
Updated 2026-08-21 5:05 PM EST
GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
OFFENSIVE → SOXX, SMH
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
Allocation 5% · deployed $459.96 (0.5% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$0.95
Holdings: SOXX $230.04 · SMH $229.92
Updated 2026-08-27 8:43 PM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 72.80334728033473 · 0 candidates · feeds: reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
Pending: BUY NVDA ($750.00) · AFTER_HOURS
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-27 9:15 AM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
72.80334728033473
Feeds Used
reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Tuesday, 2026-08-25
ANF 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback 1.87% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BOX 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.12% and runup 0.67% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Wednesday, 2026-08-26
CRM 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day TRIGGERED Pullback -0.36% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 4.57% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
A 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.29% and runup 2.7% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBWI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -2.69% and runup 0.25% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BURL 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.36% and runup -9.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CRWD 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.1% and runup -12.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
DCI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback 0.81% and runup -3.02% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Thursday, 2026-08-27
ADSK 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback -1.19% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -1.07% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
DG 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.97% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 3.61% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AFRM 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.13% and runup -0.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBY 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.74% and runup 3.6% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BILI 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -1.44% and runup -7.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CHA 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.5% and runup 6.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CSIQ 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -2.14% and runup -9.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Saturday, 2026-08-29
VSXY 2026-08-29 (Saturday) 4 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.02% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -7.6% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-25 9:32 AM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
4 / 5
Open Legs
0 / 2
Signal
2026-08-21 5:05 PM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
GEHC ORDER PENDING $74.82 (est.) $79.68 $70.70 — —
CMG EXITED · target hit $34.72 $36.98 $32.81 $37.33 $160.55 (+7.52%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check 2026-08-27 3:40 AM

GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER

H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL. Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
OFFENSIVE
Target Book
SOXX 60% / SMH 40%
Signal
2026-08-27 8:43 PM
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
H100 Current $/GPU-hr20d Ago20d Momentum20d Z-Score5d Avg Return
$2.76 $2.68 +3.0% +0.57 +0.77%
Z-score above +0.5 with rising H100 → offensive (60% SOXX / 40% SMH) · below −0.5 with falling H100 → defensive (100% BIL) · otherwise neutral half book · Today: Z +0.57 → OFFENSIVE

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
66.1%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$2.76
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.06$1.06-15.5%38.0%+1.3%
B200$6.03$6.03+13.0%59.1%+5.3%
H100 SXM$2.76$2.76-3.2%65.2%+3.8%
H200$4.29$4.29+4.4%95.7%-5.9%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.5%72.7%+8.3%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.4642026-08-26
Openai$0.3982026-08-26
Google$0.2972026-08-26
Deepseek$0.1032026-08-26
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — since July 27, 2026 LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 26, 2026 · page generated August 27, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET
Days Live
23
Total Return
+7.30%
Sharpe
4.19
Sortino
8.56
Calmar
36.22
Max DD
-3.21%
Trade Win Rate
65%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Maple $12,949 +27.50% 7.54 17.54 472.32 -2.8% 65% +5.8% 23
Earnings Momentum $4,146 +8.50% 3.60 6.22 34.55 -4.2% 61% +2.7% 23
Bond Rotation $12,929 +4.23% 2.26 4.90 16.54 -3.5% 43% +3.4% 23
Memory Rotation $28,282 +1.26% 0.68 1.03 3.00 -4.9% 48% +4.4% 23
GPU Tilt $460 +0.56% 0.35 0.59 0.71 -8.8% 57% +7.5% 23
All metrics computed from actual tracked paper-account equity (state/per_strategy_equity) through August 26, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
35%
$28,282.54
Bond Rotation
15%
$12,928.94
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
5%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$12,948.87
Earnings Momentum
15%
$4,145.78
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
GPU Tilt
5%
$459.96
Available Cash: $21,802.16 Total Deployed: $63,030.44 / $84,832.60
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $4,264.35

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-27 22:00 EST