Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-28 19:00 EST · data as of 2026-08-27
Portfolio Value
$84,125.33
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-28 7:00 PM EST
Today's P&L
$-926.11 (-1.09%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,874.67 (-15.87%)
Cash Available
$16,915.41

HMM Regime Overlay CURRENT POLICY

Regime
LOW-VOL
Confidence
86.4%
Memory Rotation 35% · Bond Rotation 25% · Trump Tweet 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 35%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; allocations resolved from current hmm_overlay policy · updated 2026-08-27 9:30 PM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
11.59
total vol risk
Sortino
41.03
downside only
Calmar
267.27
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-0.8%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+11.26%
23 days live
Trade Win Rate
66%
80 wins / 122 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-27.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 122 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-15,405.01
all closed trades
Win Rate
65.57%
80 wins / 122 closed
Profit Factor
0.38
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
122
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-126.27
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 25 of 122 (20.5% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$-23.13▲ $129.72
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
68.00%▲ 3.1pp
17 wins / 25 OOS
Profit Factor
0.34▼ 0.04
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
N/A— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
25▼ 72
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▼ 10.63%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
DIG Memory Rotation 248.989 $67.06 $67.16 $16,722.10 $24.82 (+0.15%)
BIL Memory Rotation 169.051 $91.60 $91.66 $15,494.87 $9.54 (+0.06%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 6.932 $713.79 $716.15 $4,964.32 $16.39 (+0.33%)
BNS Maple 45.5999 $94.31 $92.39 $4,212.98 $-87.66 (-2.04%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $206.25 $4,049.68 $-185.29 (-4.38%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $153.33 $4,020.11 $380.96 (+10.47%)
SOXX GPU Tilt 6.1828 $519.50 $508.51 $3,144.03 $-67.97 (-2.12%)
FIVE Earnings Momentum 11.1089 $255.00 $240.20 $2,668.36 $-164.41 (-5.80%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $260.39 $2,637.72 $64.38 (+2.50%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $75.24 $2,033.86 $-101.91 (-4.77%)
SMH GPU Tilt 3.1099 $566.51 $554.00 $1,722.89 $-38.92 (-2.21%)
ENB Maple 29.5347 $50.39 $50.20 $1,482.64 $-5.58 (-0.38%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $38.40 $1,138.82 $71.18 (+6.67%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $563.85 $985.60 $-82.04 (-7.68%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $256.00 $622.78 $117.55 (+23.27%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $87.85 $510.29 $5.05 (+1.00%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $122.89 $498.09 $-7.15 (-1.42%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $204.23 $170.19 $-3.73 (-2.15%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $121.25 $107.48 $0.62 (+0.58%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $61.86 $23.10 $-0.92 (-3.84%)
Last updated 2026-08-28 7:00 PM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-28 11:11 AM SMH BUY 0.0555 $564.61 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:11 AM SOXX BUY 0.0606 $518.03 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:10 AM SMH BUY 0.0644 $565.11 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:10 AM SOXX BUY 0.0696 $518.50 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:09 AM SMH BUY 0.0733 $565.27 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:09 AM SOXX BUY 0.0762 $518.49 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:08 AM SMH BUY 0.065 $565.02 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:08 AM SOXX BUY 0.0697 $518.27 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:07 AM SMH BUY 0.0685 $565.47 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:07 AM SOXX BUY 0.0746 $518.83 GPU Tilt

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → DIG · momentum 10.40% · VIX 14.51
OFFENSIVE: DIG above SMA80 with 20d momentum=10.40%. VIX=14.5; vol-scaled weight=52.1% (20d realized vol=48.0%, target=25%); rerisk_gate: inactive until 2026-08-29, target_vol=25% · Re-risk gate: inactive until 2026-08-29, target_vol=25%
Allocation 35% · deployed $32,216.98 (38.3% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$34.36
Holdings: DIG $16,722.10 · BIL $15,494.87
Updated 2026-08-27 9:30 PM EST
Maple Sleeve PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · account holdings $14,066.18 (16.7% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$98.39
Holdings: BNS $4,212.98 · AEM $4,049.68 · WPM $4,020.11 · ENB $1,482.64 · RY $170.19 · TD $107.48 · TRP $23.10
Updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: 10Y -2.4bp/5d <= +15bp, QQQ unchanged
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,964.32 (5.9% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$16.39
Holdings: QQQ $4,964.32
Updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → FIVE, GOLD, ECAT
Allocation 15% · deployed $6,826.64 (8.1% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-277.18
Holdings: FIVE $2,668.36 · BAH $2,033.86 · EXLS $1,138.82 · LMT $985.60
Updated 2026-08-28 9:22 AM EST
GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
OFFENSIVE → SOXX, SMH
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,866.92 (5.8% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-106.88
Holdings: SOXX $3,144.03 · SMH $1,722.89
Updated 2026-08-27 8:43 PM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 72.80334728033473 · 0 candidates · feeds: reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
Pending: BUY NVDA ($750.00) · AFTER_HOURS
Last run 2026-08-28 6:48 PM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-28 8:00 AM EST
VNQ Reversion ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-28 9:15 AM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
72.80334728033473
Feeds Used
reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Friday, 2026-08-28
CHA 2026-08-28 (Friday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -3.16% and runup 1.17% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Monday, 2026-08-31
CISS 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback -19.68% and runup -35.06% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FRO 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.21% and runup 7.97% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Tuesday, 2026-09-01
CRDO 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.78% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
DELL 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.35% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
Wednesday, 2026-09-02
ECAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days TRIGGERED Pullback -0.03% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -0.91% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
FIVE 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days TRIGGERED Pullback -3.27% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 2.18% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
GOLD 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days TRIGGERED Pullback -0.19% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 4.95% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AGX 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -1.56% and runup -17.7% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
AI 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 2.83% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
AVGO 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 2.57% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BCAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.28% and runup -0.29% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BSTZ 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 2.16% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
CAL 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -4.93% and runup -8.67% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CPRT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Runup 11.47% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
CXM 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 5.28% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 12.94% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
DAKT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.68% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
GIII 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.6% and runup -1.33% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-28 9:22 AM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
0 / 5
Open Legs
1 / 3
Signal
2026-08-28 9:22 AM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
FIVE OPEN $255.00 $271.57 $240.97 $240.20 $-164.41 (-5.80%)
GOLD ORDER PENDING $45.98 (est.) $48.97 $43.45 — —
ECAT ORDER PENDING $15.42 (est.) $16.42 $14.57 — —
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check 2026-08-28 3:40 AM

GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER

H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL. Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
OFFENSIVE
Target Book
SOXX 60% / SMH 40%
Signal
2026-08-27 8:43 PM
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
H100 Current $/GPU-hr20d Ago20d Momentum20d Z-Score5d Avg Return
$2.76 $2.68 +3.0% +0.57 +0.77%
Z-score above +0.5 with rising H100 → offensive (60% SOXX / 40% SMH) · below −0.5 with falling H100 → defensive (100% BIL) · otherwise neutral half book · Today: Z +0.57 → OFFENSIVE

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
66.1%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$2.76
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.06$1.21-15.5%38.0%+1.3%
B200$6.03$6.01+13.0%59.1%+5.3%
H100 SXM$2.76$2.93-3.2%65.2%+3.8%
H200$4.29$4.49+4.4%95.7%-5.9%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.5%72.7%+8.3%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.4642026-08-26
Openai$0.3982026-08-26
Google$0.2972026-08-26
Deepseek$0.1032026-08-26
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — since July 28, 2026 LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 27, 2026 · page generated August 28, 2026 at 07:00 PM ET
Days Live
23
Total Return
+11.26%
Sharpe
11.59
Sortino
41.03
Calmar
267.27
Max DD
-0.83%
Trade Win Rate
66%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Maple $14,066 +24.28% 7.67 23.23 394.92 -2.5% 74% +5.0% 23
Earnings Momentum $6,827 +11.31% 4.99 8.40 91.28 -2.4% 65% +3.4% 23
GPU Tilt $4,867 +7.63% 1.90 3.11 13.42 -9.2% 61% +8.2% 23
Memory Rotation $32,217 +7.57% 3.68 7.79 32.61 -3.8% 57% +4.5% 23
Bond Rotation $4,964 +6.80% 3.48 7.21 29.84 -3.5% 48% +3.4% 23
All metrics computed from actual tracked paper-account equity (state/per_strategy_equity) through August 27, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
35%
$32,216.98
Bond Rotation
5%
$4,964.32
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$14,066.18
Earnings Momentum
15%
$6,826.64
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
GPU Tilt
5%
$4,866.92
Available Cash: $16,915.41 Total Deployed: $67,209.92 / $84,125.33
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $4,268.89

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-28 19:00 EST