H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
NEUTRAL → SOXX, SMH, BIL
GPU tilt NEUTRAL: H100 mom=+1.4% Z=-0.62 5d_avg=+1.16% → half position
Allocation 5% · account holdings $329.20 (0.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$3.43
Holdings: SMH $267.64 · SOXX $61.56
Updated 2026-09-08 11:08 PM ET
Braided-DeltaESTPAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
LIVE SPY timing sleeve — sector residual-dispersion braid plus breadth and basket confirmation; close signal executes next open. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
cash → BIL
No active Braided-Delta position or entry at 2026-09-08 close; target BIL
Allocation 5% · account holdings $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-09-09 8:00 AM ET
WaterholeESTPAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
LIVE SPY stress ladder — robust SPY volatility/drawdown and TLT-return composite; 0/40/70/100% exposure. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
long → SPY
Waterhole P<0 full-risk band: P=-0.286; target 100% SPY / 0% BIL at the next open
Allocation 5% · account holdings $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-09-09 8:00 AM ET
BTC Regime GateESTPAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
EMA20d>EMA200d long/cash timing of BTC — OFFENSIVE=IBIT (spot BTC ETF), DEFENSIVE=BIL. Backtest 4.66y (USDT+USDC, 25bp costs): +22.6% CAGR / -32.6% maxDD vs B&H +11.6% / -67.6%; ~1.8 flips/yr. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
OFFENSIVE → IBIT
EMA20d > EMA200d (spread +591bp) — long IBIT
Allocation 5% · account holdings $4,421.25 (5.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$7.97
Holdings: IBIT $4,421.25
Updated 2026-09-09 8:00 AM ET
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-09-09 9:16 AM ET
Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL
Meme Mania
83.3
Feeds Used
reddit, polymarket, kalshi, twitter
Feeds Missing
kalshi: OK · polymarket: OK · reddit: OK · twitter: OK
Ticker
Meme Score
Suggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
Meme signal · 2026-09-08 11:30 PM ET
Earnings Calendar SCANNER
Ticker
Earnings Date
Days Until (at scan)
Decision
Reason
Wednesday, 2026-09-09
AEO EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating
ASO EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
Pullback 1.73% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); price -3.21% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
AVAV EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
Pullback 1.88% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -5.67% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
CHWY EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
CNM EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
price -1.94% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
COO EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -5.98% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
KFY EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
KR EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -0.57% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
NAVN EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -1.52% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
NB EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -8.66% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
ODD EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating; price -12.97% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
RH EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -15.5% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
SAIL EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
SIG EST
2026-09-09 (Wednesday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -4.64% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
Thursday, 2026-09-10
ADBE EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
CPRT EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating
FEIM EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
Pullback 7.41% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 11.82% >= 10% cap (already run up too much); momentum mixed not stable/accelerating
HUIZ EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating
LPTH EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
Pullback 9.54% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); price -12.14% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
ORCL EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
Pullback 6.58% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 14.09% >= 10% cap (already run up too much); momentum mixed not stable/accelerating
SHOE EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
price -10.03% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
TEN EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
2 days
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
Friday, 2026-09-11
ANAB EST
2026-09-11 (Friday)
3 days
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating; price -2.41% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-09-08 11:28 PM ET
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Trading Days Since Signal EST
2 / 5
Open Legs
3 / 5
Signal
2026-09-07 9:02 PM ET
Symbol
Status
Entry
Target
Stop
Current
Unrealized P&L
CHWY EST
— · no live position confirmed
$23.66 EST
$25.20
$22.36
—
—
BAH EST
OPEN
—
—
—
$72.97
$-163.27 (-7.65%)
CMG EST
— · no live position confirmed
—
—
—
—
—
EXLS EST
OPEN
—
—
—
$35.21
$-23.43 (-2.19%)
LMT EST
OPEN
—
—
—
$525.28
$-149.46 (-14.00%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check —
TimesFM-3 Shadow Research GLD · 21dPAPER / RESEARCH
Zero-shot 330M foundation model (Google, non-commercial checkpoint) vs the
forecast_v2 hybrid Monte-Carlo baseline. Walk-forward: 504d context → 21d horizon.
Directional Brier = mean((p_up − actual)²); 0.25 = coin flip. Shadow
only — no positions. Last run 2026-09-08 11:09 PM ET.
TimesFM-3 (GEPA champion config)
MAE (21d)
$9.57 EST
Dir Hit
60.0% EST
Brier (prob.)
0.2500 EST
CRPS
3.7672 EST
Hybrid v2 (baseline)
MAE (21d)
$10.12 EST
Dir Hit
48.6% EST
Brier (prob.)
0.2654 EST
GEPA champion
(holdout-locked):EST selection Brier 0.2233
over 21 windows · holdout Brier
0.2043
over 14 locked windows ·
dir 71.4% ·
ctx 504 · cov QQQ+DXY+GDX · method median_binary
promising — passed holdout bar on a small adaptive sample; confirm on rolling basis before any weight
Real-money automated strategies on the Public.com brokerage accounts, one
block per account. Data below comes from the stored Public.com portfolio/transaction snapshot and local strategy state,
as of 2:00pm ET, Sep 9. These are last observed values; a failed refresh can leave an older snapshot.
Each account and strategy carries its own as-of stamp.
Sizing: 15% of account equity per position, floor $400, cap 40% of equity, minimum entry $400; each buy = min(target, spendable funds − 0.65% fee reserve). De-risk ladder: after 2 consecutive losing exits the fraction is halved (f=0.075) until a winning trade. Replaced the $500→$3,000 Tier-2 ratchet on Sep 4, 2026.
Management: Exits: 6-night hold timer (HOLD_DAYS=6; re-trigger resets, higher-sig coin wins) and BTC > EMA100 regime gate (flip → cash). Kill gates ENFORCED in code (pre-registered SCALP_PROMPT.md): −35% drawdown from the ledger high-water mark, trailing-12-month return < −15%, avg execution shortfall > 15bp/side (20-side window, from 10 sides) — a trip refuses new entries, alerts once, and sticks until reviewed. Exactly-once orders (durable intent + zero SDK retries), 8dp raw-POST sells, process lock, same-signal-date guard, data-glitch gate, crypto-only open-order guard. Schedule: 8:01 pm ET trade, 9:15 pm watchdog, 10:31 pm catch-up, 9:30 am liveness, 8:30 am status line. 100% LLM-free.
Position
CASH (USDC)
Days Left
0
Sizing Tier
normal (f=0.15)
Target Notional
$450.14
Next Buy
$450.14 (full target)
Loss Streak
0 losing exits in a row
Ledger P&L
$0.00 realized · DD $0.00 from HWM
Fee Tier
0.60%/side (120bp RT; Public API tier for < $10k monthly crypto volume). 0.50% applies only in months with >= $10k volume — the backtest reaches that in 4 of 14 OOS months; NOT assumed by the bot (reserve 0.65%).
Regime Gate
ON (BTC > EMA100)
Sig (last close)
BTC -0.4223 · ETH -0.0908 · SOL -0.1185
Recent runs
Run (ET)
Target
Trades
Reason
8:01pm ET, Sep 8
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
6:45am ET, Sep 8
USDC
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
8:01pm ET, Sep 7
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
8:02pm ET, Sep 6
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
8:02pm ET, Sep 5
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
Entry >1.75σ / 14d · EMA100 gate · 6-day hold / 1 position · backtest — (no artifact)
Executor: Public.com AI Agent 'Conditional SMH Day Trade' (public-side, autonomous) ·
Public-side gate not observed locally · STALE — flag >36h old
Account: Agent Cash Brok 1 - 5OI23198 cash
Sizing: 2.5% of account equity per trade, clamped to $100–$400 (prompt v2, Sep 4, 2026; PASTED into the Public-side agent 2026-09-04 — live).
Management: Entry: weekdays 3:45 pm ET gate — skip if SMH < 200-day SMA or QQQ 21-day return ≥ +12%; else 3:55 pm ET limit buy at ask + $0.05 (cancel unfilled at close). Exit: sell ALL at 9:30 am ET next day, market. Never short, no stop-loss, never hold past the next open, at most one buy per day. Kill rules (user-enforced): after 60 traded nights must beat the ungated and MA200-only books; stop if drawdown from peak > 35%.
Executor gate
not observed — decided on the Public-side agent
Book
—
Legacy model flag (research cross-check only, not the SMH executor): no-skip · — · as of 11:11pm ET, Sep 8 · 11:11pm ET, Sep 8
First live trade:
3:55 PM ET, Sep 1 — SMH limit buy $100.00 @ $545.47 limit;
FILLED 0.18334 sh @ $545.43, $0.00 fees (valid until Nov 30, 2026)
Weekdays 3:45 PM ET: skip if SMH < 200-day SMA or QQQ 4-week return >= +12%; else buy 2.5% of equity ($100–$400; prompt v2 PASTED 2026-09-04) of SMH at 3:55 PM ET (limit at ask +$0.05, cancel unfilled at close); sell ALL next morning at 9:30 AM ET market. Never short, no stop-loss, never hold past next open.
Asia-gate London Goldweekdays · 3:00 AM buy → 8:00 AM sell (ET)
Executor: Hermes cron executor (gold_bot.py, 6 phases) — LLM-free ·
Flag as of 11:09pm ET, Sep 8 · last observed
Account: Agent Cash Brok 1 - 5OI23198 cash
Sizing: 2.5% of account equity per session, clamped to $100–$400 (gold_bot.py target_notional, Sep 4, 2026); no partial entry below $90; buy also clamped by the daily funds allocator's headroom on this shared account.
Management: 6-phase weekday schedule (Hermes cron, LLM-free): 8:00 pm ET evening anchor → 2:00 am mark (GREEN if GLD > the 8:00 pm price, else RED) → 3:00 am buy (GREEN + BULL regime flag only; extended-hours LIMIT at ask + 1 tick) → 3:05 am cancel unfilled → 8:00 am sell ALL (LIMIT at bid − 1 tick) → 8:05 am sell fallback (market / marketable limit). Never short, never hold past 8:00 am, no stop-loss. Kill gates in code: after 60 traded sessions must beat always-long GLD; 120-session signal agreement must stay ≥ 51%.
Regime flag (weekly)
BULL
Flag detail
p_up 0.7, 21d median $419.32 vs $399.72 (+4.9%)
Kill gates
not tripped (60-trade vs GLD; 120-trade agreement ≥ 51%)
Weekly BULL/BEAR regime flag (trade only on BULL). Weekdays: 2:00 AM ET — GREEN if GLD now > 8:00 PM ET price; GREEN → buy 2.5% of equity ($100–$400) of GLD at 3:00 AM ET (extended-hours limit near ask; cancel unfilled at 3:05 AM); sell ALL at 8:00 AM ET (limit near bid; aggressive fallback if unfilled). RED/flat/incomplete → do nothing. Never short, never hold overnight, no stop-loss — the 8:00 AM exit is the exit.
2y net @0.6bp (GC=F basis): +13.8% CAGR / Sharpe 1.98 / −4.4% maxDD / 59.8% win / 291 sessions (long 4.5%/0.61). Live 2bp cost: ≈low-teens CAGR. Decaying edge: first ½ +28.4%/4.62 vs second ½ +4.0%/0.55 (London 17.1%→7.5%). Stop: last 60 trades < long GLD; 120-trade agreement <51%.
Alpaca Paper Sleeves Alpaca paper (separate broker)● PAPER — Alpaca
Paper-trading sleeves on the Alpaca paper account — a different broker from
Public.com, tracked separately. Hermes cron bilbo_paper — hourly 9:55am–3:55pm ET + 4:10pm ET reconcile
· State as of 4:10pm ET, Sep 8 (ledger.updated_et)
EST
Alpaca Paper SleevesBilbo v2 hourly · 9:55am–3:55pm ET
Executor: Hermes cron bilbo_paper — hourly 9:55am–3:55pm ET + 4:10pm ET reconcile ·
State as of 4:10pm ET, Sep 8 (ledger.updated_et) · last observed
QQQ Sleeve
FLAT
Bilbo Long
3 open (MSFT, TSLA, SMCI)
Bilbo Dual Ledger
primary author-exits + shadow cap-only
Book
Alpaca paper — ~25bp equity risk/trade
Armed compression boxes
Symbol
Box Low
Box High
Grey Bars
Entry
MSFT
$493.81
$500.73
13
$511.58
SMCI
$36.61
$37.40
21
$37.97
TSLA
$350.36
$356.65
11
$371.97
Recent events
Time (ET)
Sleeve
Event
Detail
11:56am ET, Sep 9
bilbo
Skipped
META stop_distance_gt_6pct
12:38am ET, Sep 9
bilbo
Carveout reservation
4:10pm ET, Sep 8
bilbo
Equity mark
9:56am ET, Sep 8
bilbo
Order error
MSFT APIError: {"code":40310000,"message":"account is not allowed to short"}
4:10pm ET, Sep 7
bilbo
Equity mark
Bilbo hourly (Megacap 20, v2 faithful): confirmed hourly close above the 5-grey-candle compression box, RTH closes only, trend gate vs prior-day daily EMA21; buy shares at next 5-min bar open; exits keyed to the stock — 5-min close below box low, or after a +1.0 daily-ATR run a trail giving back 75% of peak, or 10-trading-day cap. Dual ledger: primary author rules + shadow 10-day-cap-only on the same entries. Risk ~25bp equity/trade at the box-low stop, max 8 concurrent. QQQ EMA21 reversion: buy $500 QQQ at next open when QQQ close <= 0.95×EMA21, sell at the open 5 sessions later.
Bilbo v2 replication 2021–2026 (fit 86% vs author live; 0 spurious): +64bp/trade primary / +118bp/trade cap-only shadow, PF 1.40, day-cluster t=3.37 (n=1,758), net 1bp/side. Alpaca paper-only, 4-week forward gate.
8-Bot Options Desk ADVISORY · NO ORDERS
Snapshot Sep 09, 09:34 AM ET
Bots live · profiles
8/8EST
Last desk brief · bot08 run
Sep 09, 09:35 AM ET
Scheduler · execution only
7/8 last-run OKEST
Desk equity snapshot
$3,000.00
Owner cap
$3,000.00
Cap headroom · cap minus equity
$0.00EST
Open reservations · ledger
0EST
Active vetoes / flags · symbols
15EST
Audit findings · fixed / total
12/12 fixed · 0 openEST
DAG E2E · S1–S6
PASSSep 07, 07:49 PM ET
bot01Sep 09, 08:33 AM ET● OKscan
bot02Sep 07, 03:29 PM ET● OKscan
bot03Sep 09, 09:16 AM ET● OKidle
bot04Sep 09, 08:01 AM ET● OKscan
bot05Sep 09, 09:03 AM ET● FAILflag
bot06Sep 09, 09:16 AM ET● OKidle
bot07Sep 09, 09:24 AM ET● OKrisk
bot08Sep 09, 09:35 AM ET● OKbrief
EST counts / headroom · audit A1–A10, C2, bot08 budget
Strategy Factory DISCOVERY · NO LIVE CAPITAL
Arena method: harvest-first pair transfers · ≤2 signal knobs · honest bar (≥100 trades, PF ≥1.20, WR ≥40%, payoff >1.0) · failures archived · forward window before paper admission
Candidates sit GATE_PENDING until a locked out-of-sample window exists, then scripts/candidate_gate.py (deflated-Sharpe, novelty, spanning) rules on paper admission. Weekly cycle: Mondays 8:00 AM ET.
Market-Neutral Lab PAPER · READ-ONLY · 5OI24098
short 2 MSTR @ $142.50 · long 9 IBIT @ $45.11 · opened 2026-09-07 EST
marks: MSTR $135.09 · IBIT $44.63 · gross $672 EST
Pair paper P&L
+$10 EST
Net delta drift
+0.1% EST
MSTR vs IBIT (premium residual)
-4.2% EST
Margin est
$436 EST
C4 SPAC carry
IBAC $10.88 · P&L −$32 · gap vs trust -2.17% · extension vote 2026-09-24 EST
NHIC $10.62 · P&L −$2 · gap vs trust -0.39% · redemption 2026-09-15 EST
Put debits (Oct-16) ETHA 2026-10-16P 19 · IV +54% · mid $1.355 EST · nearest strike to underlying last $18.7899 (quote Sep 09, 2026 12:00 PM ET) UNG 2026-10-16P 10 · IV +42% · mid $0.405 EST · nearest strike to underlying last $10.25 (quote Sep 09, 2026 12:00 PM ET)
HTB probe · Sep 09, 2026 10:00 AM ET · 27/28 OK
Tracker as of Sep 09, 2026 12:35 PM ET · terms/chains snapshot Sep 09, 2026 12:00 PM ET
EST paper book · no broker positions · missing —
GPU Tilt ESTLIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
NEUTRAL
Target Book
SOXX 30% / SMH 20% / BIL 50%
Signal
2026-09-08 11:08 PM ET
GPU tilt NEUTRAL: H100 mom=+1.4% Z=-0.62 5d_avg=+1.16% → half position
H100 Signal $/GPU-hr
20d Ago
20d Momentum
20d Z-Score
5d Avg Return
$3.0838
$3.04
+1.4%
-0.62
+1.16%
Z >+0.5 + rising: 60% SOXX / 40% SMH · <−0.5 + falling: 100% BIL · else ½ book · Last signal: Z -0.62 → NEUTRAL
⚡ VIX for Compute
Ornn daily GPU price observations. Returns and annualized volatility are calculated estimates over the dated history shown; unavailable statistics: —.
Compute VIX (avg)
65.7% EST
H100 last daily index
$3.08
Sep 08, 04:00 PM ET
GPU
Daily $/hr
Observed (ET)
History return
Ann. vol
20-session momentum
History window
A100 SXM4
$1.02
Sep 08, 04:00 PM ET
-19.4% EST
39.4% EST
-4.2% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-08
B200
$6.72
Sep 08, 04:00 PM ET
+25.9% EST
57.4% EST
+1.8% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-08
H100 SXM
$3.08
Sep 08, 04:00 PM ET
+8.2% EST
65.1% EST
+1.4% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-08
H200
$4.91
Sep 08, 04:00 PM ET
+19.5% EST
92.2% EST
-3.8% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-08
RTX 5090
$0.63
Sep 08, 04:00 PM ET
-26.1% EST
74.3% EST
+18.6% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-08
LLM Token Index
$/Mtok (blended)
Observed
Anthropic
$1.393
2026-09-07
Deepseek
$0.095
2026-09-07
Google
$0.494
2026-09-07
Openai
$0.312
2026-09-07
Ornn gpu_history.json / otpi_history.json · historical, not spot
ATR SPY Put Credit Spread ESTLIVE PAPER
Weekly −1·ATR SPY 10-wide put credit spread, 1 lot, same-week Friday expiry.
Sell short strike at prior weekly close − 1.0×ATR14; skip unless natural credit ≥ $0.20.
Fill-confirmed entries only; one re-quote budget per week. Account PA3HAIILY8S9.
Realized P&L (void-adjusted)
$0.00
Max Risk / Lot
$1,000
Swan Breaches (13wk)
0/13w
Funding (sells at open)
0/4 fills · OBP $1
Week
Strikes
Expiry
Credit
Status
2026-W35
760/750
—
—
void_unfilled phantom fill: no broker order ever existed for W35 (see ledger void_un
2026-W36
750/740
2026-09-04
$0.00
skipped_credit natural credit 0.00 < gate 0.20
2026-W37
755/745
2026-09-11
$0.41
skipped_cancelled order cancelled unfilled
EST: sleeve-book estimate from state ledger, void-unfilled corrections applied; broker-verified fills only count. Updated 2026-09-08 8:33 PM ET
Live Paper Trading Performance LIVE PAPER
21 trading days · Alpaca 1M window · through 2026-09-08
Trailing Days
21
Total Return
-0.24%
Sharpe
-0.22
Sortino
-0.29
Calmar
-1.34
Max DD
-2.13%
Trade Win Rate
30%
Profit Factor
0.55
Expectancy
$-5
Closed Trades
573
Strategy
Equity
Return
Sharpe
Sortino
Calmar
Max DD
Daily Up %
Best Day
Days
Hormuz Carry EST
$3,349
+11.27%
11.59
60.26
1176.59
-1.2%
67%
+3.9%
10
Shipping EST
$1,793
+10.66%
9.79
34.32
673.58
-1.8%
67%
+4.4%
10
Ndx Momentum EST
$2,025
+9.45%
16.11
—
119779.33
-0.1%
75%
+5.0%
5
Value Dip EST
$3,982
+4.86%
5.04
7.60
90.79
-2.5%
56%
+3.4%
10
Memory Rotation EST
$17,699
+3.26%
1.45
3.91
7.32
-6.1%
52%
+6.8%
22
Maple EST
$4,261
+2.41%
0.74
1.31
1.32
-23.8%
57%
+11.1%
22
BTC Regime Gate EST
$4,512
-0.37%
-0.11
-1.54
-2.90
-4.3%
50%
+5.8%
7
Bond Rotation EST
$7,072
-0.86%
-0.50
-0.71
-1.69
-5.5%
38%
+2.5%
22
Earnings Momentum EST
$6,236
-4.12%
-4.57
-8.08
-12.30
-4.1%
43%
+1.9%
15
Trump Tweet EST
$2,236
-5.72%
-4.54
-5.93
-9.15
-8.5%
22%
+3.5%
10
Bilbo Paper EST
$1,623
-11.90%
-5.47
-8.22
-5.22
-17.8%
36%
+3.6%
12
Unattributed EST
$2,660
-23.12%
-1.99
-2.30
-3.05
-31.1%
38%
+10.2%
22
GPU Tilt EST
$265
-42.37%
4.38
18.63
-0.99
-101.3%
50%
+1077.1%
9
8-Bot Options Desk EST
$3,000
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—
—
—
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4
Trade Quality (FIFO round-trips)
Strategy
Closed Trades
Win Rate
Profit Factor
Expectancy
W/L Ratio
Trades/wk
Hormuz Carry
4
75%
44.82
$3
14.94
1.0
Ndx Momentum
5
80%
29.68
$35
7.42
1.2
Memory Rotation
45
56%
1.16
$5
0.93
10.7
Maple
188
28%
0.35
$-7
0.88
44.8
BTC Regime Gate
14
57%
1.14
$0
0.86
3.3
Bond Rotation
27
18%
0.64
$-1
2.80
6.4
Earnings Momentum
2
50%
1.66
$32
1.66
0.5
Unattributed
5
0%
0.00
$-290
—
1.2
GPU Tilt
283
25%
0.67
$-1
1.97
67.4
FIFO-matched Alpaca fills · excludes cash venues & dust · what a quant checks before trusting a Sharpe
Alpaca get_portfolio_history · EST fill-timeline × closes · not a backtest
EST P&L residual $-38.17 (-0.05% NAV) · BIL/SHV 0%
EST equity gap $23,342.30 (27.77% NAV) · desk allocation $3,000.00 · account NAV through 2026-09-08 · desk through 2026-09-09
Since First Live Session LIVE PAPER
Portfolio vs $VOO vs $GOOG — all indexed to 100 on 2026-08-10 (first live paper session, post-reset $100k account). Benchmarks: split-adjusted closes, same calendar dates.
Cumulative % Return
Portfolio$VOO$GOOG
+2%-3%-8%
Aug 10 '26Sep 1Sep 8 '26
Latest: Portfolio -0.2% · $VOO -0.7% · $GOOG -5.8% · touch or drag a finger across the chart to inspect any date · sources: Alpaca account history + Yahoo Finance daily closes
Capital Allocation · No Margin
Memory Rotation
25%
$3,797.59 EST
Bond Rotation
0%
$0.00 EST
DRAM
0%
$0.00 EST
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00 EST
Maple
0%
$0.00 EST
Earnings Momentum
15%
$3,934.89 EST
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00 EST
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00 EST
GPU Tilt
5%
$1,435.87 EST
BTC Regime Gate
5%
$4,421.25 EST
Braided-Delta
5%
$0.00 EST
Waterhole
5%
$0.00 EST
Bilbo Paper
25%
$0.00 EST
Available Cash: $53,331.47Total Deployed: $29,368.13 / $82,597.61