Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-26 14:00 EST · data as of 2026-08-25
Portfolio Value
$84,827.68
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-26 2:00 PM EST
Today's P&L
$-24.46 (-0.03%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,172.32 (-15.17%)
Cash Available
$25,164.70

HMM Regime Overlay CURRENT POLICY

Regime
TRANSITIONAL
Confidence
74.4%
Memory Rotation 35% · Bond Rotation 25% · Trump Tweet 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 35%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; allocations resolved from current hmm_overlay policy · updated 2026-08-21 5:30 PM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
9.93
total vol risk
Sortino
32.57
downside only
Calmar
212.70
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-1.0%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+10.46%
22 days live
Trade Win Rate
65%
68 wins / 105 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-25.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 105 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-15,348.44
all closed trades
Win Rate
64.76%
68 wins / 105 closed
Profit Factor
0.38
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
105
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-146.18
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 21 of 105 (20.0% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$-12.65▲ $166.91
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
71.43%▲ 8.3pp
15 wins / 21 OOS
Profit Factor
0.71▲ 0.34
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
N/A— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
21▼ 63
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▲ 92.93%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
BIL Memory Rotation 167.0966 $91.59 $91.62 $15,310.01 $5.73 (+0.04%)
DIG Memory Rotation 218.783 $68.65 $67.16 $14,693.47 $-326.25 (-2.17%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 17.932 $713.79 $710.85 $12,746.93 $-52.65 (-0.41%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $215.35 $4,228.45 $-6.52 (-0.15%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $156.53 $4,104.01 $464.86 (+12.77%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $252.67 $2,559.52 $-13.82 (-0.54%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $74.02 $2,000.75 $-135.02 (-6.32%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $37.39 $1,108.86 $41.22 (+3.86%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $565.38 $988.27 $-79.37 (-7.43%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $90.89 $527.95 $22.71 (+4.50%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $204.33 $497.08 $-8.15 (-1.61%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $121.84 $493.83 $-11.41 (-2.26%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $208.00 $173.33 $-0.59 (-0.34%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $119.51 $105.94 $-0.93 (-0.87%)
BNS Maple 0.6879 $88.59 $94.19 $64.80 $3.86 (+6.33%)
ENB Maple 0.7207 $51.55 $50.34 $36.28 $-0.87 (-2.34%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $62.88 $23.49 $-0.54 (-2.24%)
Last updated 2026-08-26 2:00 PM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-26 11:40 AM CMG SELL 61.5141 $37.32 Earnings Momentum
2026-08-26 9:32 AM DIG BUY 55.6577 $65.41 Memory Rotation
2026-08-26 9:32 AM BIL BUY 53.2896 $91.63 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:31 PM BIL BUY 0.4885 $91.63 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 3:56 PM DIG BUY 0.4722 $66.30 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 12:06 PM BIL BUY 0.196 $91.62 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 10:00 AM DIG BUY 1.0591 $66.82 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:34 AM DIG BUY 11.0064 $67.45 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:34 AM BIL BUY 0.1562 $91.62 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:34 AM BIL SELL 7.0613 $91.61 Memory Rotation

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → DIG · momentum 12.48% · VIX 15.13
OFFENSIVE: DIG above SMA80 with 20d momentum=12.48%. VIX=15.1; vol-scaled weight=48.2% (20d realized vol=51.8%, target=25%) · Re-risk gate: DORMANT until 2026-08-29 · target vol 25%; eligible for 30% only when 30Y 5-day change is flat or down
Allocation 35% · deployed $30,003.48 (35.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-320.52
Holdings: BIL $15,310.01 · DIG $14,693.47
Updated 2026-08-21 5:30 PM EST
Maple Sleeve PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · account holdings $8,736.30 (10.3% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$459.27
Holdings: AEM $4,228.45 · WPM $4,104.01 · RY $173.33 · TD $105.94 · BNS $64.80 · ENB $36.28 · TRP $23.49
Updated 2026-08-22 4:42 PM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: enabled; latest saved signal predates filter evaluation — status pending next strategy run
Allocation 15% · deployed $12,746.93 (15.0% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-52.65
Holdings: QQQ $12,746.93
Updated 2026-08-21 5:30 PM EST
VNQ Reversion PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
HOLD
HOLD in BIL/cash: RSI14 51.68 is between 35 and 65
Allocation 5% · account holdings $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-21 5:31 PM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → GEHC, CMG
Allocation 15% · deployed $4,097.88 (4.8% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-173.17
Holdings: BAH $2,000.75 · EXLS $1,108.86 · LMT $988.27
Updated 2026-08-21 5:05 PM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 67.1875 · 0 candidates · feeds: reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
No pending trade
Last run 2026-08-26 12:48 PM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-26 8:00 AM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-26 9:15 AM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
67.1875
Feeds Used
reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-21 5:31 PM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Tuesday, 2026-08-25
ANF 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback 1.87% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BOX 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.12% and runup 0.67% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Wednesday, 2026-08-26
CRM 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day TRIGGERED Pullback -0.36% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 4.57% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
A 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.29% and runup 2.7% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBWI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -2.69% and runup 0.25% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BURL 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.36% and runup -9.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CRWD 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.1% and runup -12.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
DCI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback 0.81% and runup -3.02% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Thursday, 2026-08-27
ADSK 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback -1.19% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -1.07% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
DG 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.97% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 3.61% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AFRM 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.13% and runup -0.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBY 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.74% and runup 3.6% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BILI 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -1.44% and runup -7.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CHA 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.5% and runup 6.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CSIQ 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -2.14% and runup -9.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Saturday, 2026-08-29
VSXY 2026-08-29 (Saturday) 4 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.02% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -7.6% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-25 9:32 AM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
3 / 5
Open Legs
0 / 2
Signal
2026-08-21 5:05 PM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
GEHC ORDER PENDING $74.82 (est.) $79.68 $70.70 — —
CMG EXITED · target hit $34.72 $36.98 $32.81 $37.33 $160.55 (+7.52%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check 2026-08-26 1:40 AM

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
66.0%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$2.97
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.08$1.08-14.6%38.3%+3.5%
B200$6.45$6.45+20.7%58.9%+12.1%
H100 SXM$2.97$2.97+4.1%62.4%+9.1%
H200$4.26$4.26+3.7%96.7%-13.3%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.6%73.4%+8.2%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.6362026-08-24
Openai$0.4292026-08-24
Google$0.3922026-08-24
Deepseek$0.0832026-08-24
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — since July 27, 2026 LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 25, 2026 · page generated August 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM ET
Days Live
22
Total Return
+10.46%
Sharpe
9.93
Sortino
32.57
Calmar
212.70
Max DD
-1.00%
Trade Win Rate
65%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Maple $8,736 +49.43% 8.86 34.12 2644.03 -3.7% 77% +10.9% 22
Earnings Momentum $4,098 +7.80% 3.38 5.98 32.44 -4.2% 59% +2.7% 22
Memory Rotation $30,003 +5.50% 2.89 6.79 24.00 -3.5% 55% +4.3% 22
Bond Rotation $12,747 +4.19% 2.26 5.02 17.08 -3.5% 41% +3.4% 22
All metrics computed from actual tracked paper-account equity (state/per_strategy_equity) through August 25, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
35%
$30,003.48
Bond Rotation
15%
$12,746.93
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
5%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$8,736.30
Earnings Momentum
15%
$4,097.88
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
Available Cash: $25,164.70 Total Deployed: $59,662.98 / $84,827.68
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $4,078.39

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-26 14:00 EST