Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-28 06:00 EST · data as of 2026-08-27
Portfolio Value
$84,768.80
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-28 6:00 AM EST
Today's P&L
$-282.64 (-0.33%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,231.20 (-15.23%)
Cash Available
$21,801.80

HMM Regime Overlay CURRENT POLICY

Regime
LOW-VOL
Confidence
86.4%
Memory Rotation 35% · Bond Rotation 25% · Trump Tweet 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 35%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; allocations resolved from current hmm_overlay policy · updated 2026-08-27 9:30 PM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
4.34
total vol risk
Sortino
8.66
downside only
Calmar
37.08
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-3.2%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+7.79%
24 days live
Trade Win Rate
65%
69 wins / 106 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-27.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 106 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-15,286.98
all closed trades
Win Rate
65.09%
69 wins / 106 closed
Profit Factor
0.38
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
106
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-144.22
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 22 of 106 (20.8% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$-9.28▲ $170.28
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
72.73%▲ 9.6pp
16 wins / 22 OOS
Profit Factor
0.78▲ 0.41
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
N/A— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
22▼ 62
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▲ 111.07%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
BIL Memory Rotation 219.953 $91.60 $91.65 $20,158.69 $10.65 (+0.05%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 17.932 $713.79 $719.23 $12,897.20 $97.62 (+0.76%)
MU Memory Rotation 8.5497 $949.40 $915.21 $7,824.79 $-292.32 (-3.60%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $216.59 $4,252.70 $17.73 (+0.42%)
BNS Maple 45.5999 $94.31 $92.93 $4,237.60 $-63.03 (-1.47%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $159.00 $4,168.77 $529.62 (+14.55%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $258.51 $2,618.68 $45.34 (+1.76%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $74.88 $2,024.13 $-111.64 (-5.23%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $38.18 $1,132.29 $64.65 (+6.06%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $566.20 $989.71 $-77.93 (-7.30%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $250.00 $608.18 $102.95 (+20.38%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $89.71 $521.10 $15.86 (+3.14%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $127.00 $514.75 $9.51 (+1.88%)
SMH GPU Tilt 0.4031 $569.38 $566.71 $228.43 $-1.08 (-0.47%)
SOXX GPU Tilt 0.439 $522.77 $519.93 $228.25 $-1.25 (-0.54%)
DIG Memory Rotation 3.3885 $67.90 $66.33 $224.76 $-5.32 (-2.31%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $204.54 $170.45 $-3.47 (-2.00%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $121.09 $107.34 $0.47 (+0.44%)
ENB Maple 0.7207 $51.55 $49.94 $35.99 $-1.16 (-3.12%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $62.05 $23.17 $-0.85 (-3.54%)
Last updated 2026-08-28 6:00 AM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-27 9:31 PM DIG BUY 3.3885 $67.90 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:31 PM SMH BUY 0.4031 $569.38 GPU Tilt
2026-08-27 9:31 PM SOXX BUY 0.439 $522.77 GPU Tilt
2026-08-27 9:35 AM BIL BUY 52.8564 $91.64 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:34 AM MU BUY 8.5497 $949.40 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:33 AM DIG SELL 218.783 $66.40 Memory Rotation
2026-08-27 9:15 AM BNS BUY 44.912 $94.40 Maple
2026-08-26 11:40 AM CMG SELL 61.5141 $37.32 Earnings Momentum
2026-08-26 9:32 AM DIG BUY 55.6577 $65.41 Memory Rotation
2026-08-26 9:32 AM BIL BUY 53.2896 $91.63 Memory Rotation

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → DIG · momentum 10.40% · VIX 14.51
OFFENSIVE: DIG above SMA80 with 20d momentum=10.40%. VIX=14.5; vol-scaled weight=52.1% (20d realized vol=48.0%, target=25%); rerisk_gate: inactive until 2026-08-29, target_vol=25% · Re-risk gate: inactive until 2026-08-29, target_vol=25%
Allocation 35% · deployed $28,208.25 (33.3% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-286.98
Holdings: BIL $20,158.69 · MU $7,824.79 · DIG $224.76
Updated 2026-08-27 9:30 PM EST
Maple Sleeve PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · account holdings $12,996.02 (15.3% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$479.30
Holdings: AEM $4,252.70 · BNS $4,237.60 · WPM $4,168.77 · RY $170.45 · TD $107.34 · ENB $35.99 · TRP $23.17
Updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: 10Y -2.4bp/5d <= +15bp, QQQ unchanged
Allocation 5% · deployed $12,897.20 (15.2% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$97.62
Holdings: QQQ $12,897.20
Updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → GEHC, CMG
Allocation 15% · deployed $4,146.13 (4.9% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-124.92
Holdings: BAH $2,024.13 · EXLS $1,132.29 · LMT $989.71
Updated 2026-08-21 5:05 PM EST
GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
OFFENSIVE → SOXX, SMH
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
Allocation 5% · deployed $456.68 (0.5% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-2.33
Holdings: SMH $228.43 · SOXX $228.25
Updated 2026-08-27 8:43 PM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 72.80334728033473 · 0 candidates · feeds: reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
Pending: BUY NVDA ($750.00) · AFTER_HOURS
Last run 2026-08-27 10:48 PM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-28 1:01 AM EST
VNQ Reversion ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
Last run 2026-08-27 9:31 PM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-27 9:15 AM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
72.80334728033473
Feeds Used
reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-27 9:31 PM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Tuesday, 2026-08-25
ANF 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback 1.87% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BOX 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.12% and runup 0.67% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Wednesday, 2026-08-26
CRM 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day TRIGGERED Pullback -0.36% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 4.57% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
A 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.29% and runup 2.7% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBWI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -2.69% and runup 0.25% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BURL 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.36% and runup -9.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CRWD 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.1% and runup -12.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
DCI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback 0.81% and runup -3.02% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Thursday, 2026-08-27
ADSK 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback -1.19% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -1.07% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
DG 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.97% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 3.61% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AFRM 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.13% and runup -0.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBY 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.74% and runup 3.6% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BILI 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -1.44% and runup -7.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CHA 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.5% and runup 6.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CSIQ 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -2.14% and runup -9.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Saturday, 2026-08-29
VSXY 2026-08-29 (Saturday) 4 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.02% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -7.6% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-25 9:32 AM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
5 / 5
Open Legs
0 / 2
Signal
2026-08-21 5:05 PM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
GEHC ORDER PENDING $74.82 (est.) $79.68 $70.70 — —
CMG EXITED · target hit $34.72 $36.98 $32.81 $37.33 $160.55 (+7.52%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check 2026-08-27 3:40 AM

GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER

H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL. Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
OFFENSIVE
Target Book
SOXX 60% / SMH 40%
Signal
2026-08-27 8:43 PM
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
H100 Current $/GPU-hr20d Ago20d Momentum20d Z-Score5d Avg Return
$2.76 $2.68 +3.0% +0.57 +0.77%
Z-score above +0.5 with rising H100 → offensive (60% SOXX / 40% SMH) · below −0.5 with falling H100 → defensive (100% BIL) · otherwise neutral half book · Today: Z +0.57 → OFFENSIVE

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
66.1%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$2.76
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.06$1.06-15.5%38.0%+1.3%
B200$6.03$6.03+13.0%59.1%+5.3%
H100 SXM$2.76$2.76-3.2%65.2%+3.8%
H200$4.29$4.29+4.4%95.7%-5.9%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.5%72.7%+8.3%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.4642026-08-26
Openai$0.3982026-08-26
Google$0.2972026-08-26
Deepseek$0.1032026-08-26
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — since July 27, 2026 LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 27, 2026 · page generated August 28, 2026 at 06:00 AM ET
Days Live
24
Total Return
+7.79%
Sharpe
4.34
Sortino
8.66
Calmar
37.08
Max DD
-3.23%
Trade Win Rate
65%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Maple $12,996 +27.98% 7.48 17.06 436.93 -2.8% 67% +5.8% 24
Earnings Momentum $4,146 +9.59% 3.90 6.61 38.29 -4.2% 62% +2.7% 24
Bond Rotation $12,897 +5.73% 2.86 6.16 22.56 -3.5% 46% +3.4% 24
GPU Tilt $457 +3.14% 0.91 1.53 4.20 -9.1% 58% +7.8% 24
Memory Rotation $28,208 +1.17% 0.62 0.94 2.63 -4.9% 46% +4.4% 24
All metrics computed from actual tracked paper-account equity (state/per_strategy_equity) through August 27, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
35%
$28,208.25
Bond Rotation
5%
$12,897.20
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$12,996.02
Earnings Momentum
15%
$4,146.13
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
GPU Tilt
5%
$456.68
Available Cash: $21,801.80 Total Deployed: $62,967.00 / $84,768.80
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $4,262.71

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-28 06:00 EST