Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-31 13:00 EST · data as of 2026-08-28
Portfolio Value
$84,948.96
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-31 1:00 PM EST
Today's P&L
$804.61 (+0.96%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,051.04 (-15.05%)
Cash Available
$16,542.90

HMM Regime Overlay MONITOR

Regime
LOW-VOL
Confidence
59.9%
Memory Rotation 25% · Maple 20% · Earnings Momentum 15% · Bond Rotation 5% · GPU Tilt 5% · Ndx Momentum 5% · Hormuz Carry 5% · BTC Regime Gate 5% · Braided-Delta 5% · Waterhole 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 5%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; percentages shown = canonical allocator targets (hmm_overlay itself is monitor-only, not wired to execution) · updated 2026-08-31 12:02 AM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
0.04
total vol risk
Sortino
0.06
downside only
Calmar
0.00
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-1.8%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+0.00%
trailing 21 trading days (Alpaca 1M history window)
Trade Win Rate
61%
86 wins / 141 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-28.

Cumulative P&L LIVE PAPER

$-14,663.07
141 closed round-trips · net realized P&L, FIFO-matched fills
Realized P&L of each closed round-trip (sell matched to earlier buys, FIFO) summed in exit-date order. Cash-venue round-trips (BIL/SGOV/SHV) and sub-$25 dust trades are excluded, same as the Strategy Summary. Unrealized positions are not included. Not a backtest.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 141 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-14,663.07
all closed trades
Win Rate
60.99%
86 wins / 141 closed
Profit Factor
0.42
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
141
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-103.99
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 29 of 141 (20.6% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$25.95▲ $163.59
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
44.83%▼ 20.4pp
13 wins / 29 OOS
Profit Factor
4.81▲ 4.42
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
23.91%— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
29▼ 83
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▲ 1155.34%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
MU Memory Rotation 13.0091 $937.67 $947.12 $12,321.13 $122.89 (+1.01%)
BIL Memory Rotation 110.5299 $91.65 $91.67 $10,131.72 $1.89 (+0.02%)
SOXX GPU Tilt 9.0537 $510.80 $509.78 $4,615.41 $-9.26 (-0.20%)
IBIT BTC Regime Gate 102.1505 $44.22 $44.54 $4,549.78 $32.23 (+0.71%)
BNS Maple 45.5999 $94.31 $92.00 $4,195.19 $-105.44 (-2.45%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $203.19 $3,989.60 $-245.38 (-5.79%)
SPY Bond Rotation 5.1944 $766.10 $765.76 $3,977.63 $-1.75 (-0.04%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $149.76 $3,926.51 $287.36 (+7.90%)
DELL Earnings Momentum 7.5467 $455.50 $464.40 $3,504.68 $67.17 (+1.95%)
ECAT Earnings Momentum 216.6043 $15.87 $15.42 $3,340.04 $-97.47 (-2.84%)
FIVE — 11.1089 $255.00 $247.79 $2,752.67 $-80.10 (-2.83%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $259.72 $2,630.94 $57.60 (+2.24%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $75.97 $2,053.59 $-82.18 (-3.85%)
ENB Maple 29.5347 $50.39 $50.16 $1,481.46 $-6.76 (-0.46%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $38.35 $1,137.48 $69.84 (+6.54%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $561.03 $980.67 $-86.97 (-8.15%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 0.932 $714.23 $715.02 $666.37 $0.74 (+0.11%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $261.52 $636.21 $130.98 (+25.92%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $126.31 $511.95 $6.71 (+1.33%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $85.21 $494.96 $-10.28 (-2.04%)
SMH GPU Tilt 0.3738 $554.97 $555.66 $207.72 $0.26 (+0.12%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $203.59 $169.66 $-4.27 (-2.45%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $121.34 $107.56 $0.70 (+0.66%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $61.89 $23.11 $-0.91 (-3.79%)
Last updated 2026-08-31 1:00 PM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-31 12:03 PM BIL BUY 0.0628 $91.67 Memory Rotation
2026-08-31 12:03 PM IBIT BUY 0.1502 $44.54 BTC Regime Gate
2026-08-31 12:03 PM SMH BUY 0.0139 $553.26 GPU Tilt
2026-08-31 12:03 PM SOXX BUY 0.0161 $507.48 GPU Tilt
2026-08-31 11:52 AM BIL BUY 0.0923 $91.67 Memory Rotation
2026-08-31 11:52 AM IBIT BUY 0.1729 $44.53 BTC Regime Gate
2026-08-31 11:50 AM BIL BUY 0.0109 $91.67 Memory Rotation
2026-08-31 9:47 AM BIL BUY 0.2408 $91.67 Memory Rotation
2026-08-31 9:47 AM SPY BUY 0.0288 $765.90 Bond Rotation
2026-08-31 9:46 AM SPY BUY 0.0288 $765.90 Bond Rotation

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → MU · momentum 13.34% · VIX 14.43
OFFENSIVE: MU above SMA80 with 20d momentum=13.34%. VIX=14.4; vol-scaled weight=54.8% (20d realized vol=54.8%, target=30%); rerisk_gate: 30Y -7bp/5d <= 0bp, target_vol 25%→30% · Re-risk gate: 30Y -7bp/5d <= 0bp, target_vol 25%→30%
Allocation 25% · deployed $22,452.85 (26.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$124.78
Holdings: MU $12,321.13 · BIL $10,131.72
Updated 2026-08-31 12:02 AM EST
Maple Sleeve LIVE PAPER
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · deployed $13,893.09 (16.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-74.70
Holdings: BNS $4,195.19 · AEM $3,989.60 · WPM $3,926.51 · ENB $1,481.46 · RY $169.66 · TD $107.56 · TRP $23.11
Updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: 10Y -1.8bp/5d <= +15bp, QQQ unchanged
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,644.00 (5.5% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-1.01
Holdings: SPY $3,977.63 · QQQ $666.37
Updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → DELL, ECAT
Allocation 15% · deployed $11,016.46 (13.0% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-129.61
Holdings: DELL $3,504.68 · ECAT $3,340.04 · BAH $2,053.59 · EXLS $1,137.48 · LMT $980.67
Updated 2026-08-28 9:02 PM EST
GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
OFFENSIVE → SOXX, SMH
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+18.9% Z=+0.77 5d_avg=+0.21% → long semis
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,823.14 (5.7% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-9.00
Holdings: SOXX $4,615.41 · SMH $207.72
Updated 2026-08-31 10:22 AM EST
Braided-Delta LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY timing sleeve — sector residual-dispersion braid plus breadth and basket confirmation; close signal executes next open. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
long → SPY
Holding SPY from 2026-07-28; no frozen exit condition at 2026-08-28 close
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
Waterhole LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY stress ladder — robust SPY volatility/drawdown and TLT-return composite; 0/40/70/100% exposure. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
partial → SPY, BIL
Waterhole P<0.5 70% band: P=+0.088; target 70% SPY / 30% BIL at the next open
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
BTC Regime Gate LIVE PAPER
EMA20d>EMA200d long/cash timing of BTC — OFFENSIVE=IBIT (spot BTC ETF), DEFENSIVE=BIL. Backtest 4.66y (USDT+USDC, 25bp costs): +22.6% CAGR / -32.6% maxDD vs B&H +11.6% / -67.6%; ~1.8 flips/yr. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
OFFENSIVE → IBIT
EMA20d > EMA200d (spread +140bp) — long IBIT
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,549.78 (5.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$32.23
Holdings: IBIT $4,549.78
Updated 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 0.0 · 0 candidates · feeds: polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
No pending trade
Last run 2026-08-31 12:50 PM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-31 8:01 AM EST
VNQ Reversion ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-31 9:15 AM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
0.0
Feeds Used
polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
reddit, twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Monday, 2026-08-31
CISS 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback -25.51% and runup -42.72% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FRO 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.98% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
Tuesday, 2026-09-01
DELL 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.18% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -7.04% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
CRDO 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.32% and runup -10.45% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GTLB 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.5% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
Wednesday, 2026-09-02
ECAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days TRIGGERED Pullback -0.31% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -0.58% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AGX 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -7.26% and runup -27.75% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
AI 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.34% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
AVGO 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.8% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BCAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.84% and runup 0.88% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BSTZ 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 2.17% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
CAL 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -3.72% and runup -6.66% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CXM 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 6.06% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 18.43% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
DAKT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.03% and runup -5.44% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FIVE 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -4.64% and runup -1.08% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GIII 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.08% and runup -1.3% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GOLD 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.84% and runup 3.52% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-28 9:02 PM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
1 / 5
Open Legs
2 / 2
Signal
2026-08-28 9:02 PM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
DELL OPEN $455.50 $485.11 $430.45 $464.40 $67.17 (+1.95%)
ECAT OPEN $15.87 $16.90 $15.00 $15.42 $-97.47 (-2.84%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check 2026-08-31 11:40 AM

GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER

H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL. Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
OFFENSIVE
Target Book
SOXX 60% / SMH 40%
Signal
2026-08-31 10:22 AM
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+18.9% Z=+0.77 5d_avg=+0.21% → long semis
H100 Current $/GPU-hr20d Ago20d Momentum20d Z-Score5d Avg Return
$3.0083 $2.53 +18.9% +0.77 +0.21%
Z-score above +0.5 with rising H100 → offensive (60% SOXX / 40% SMH) · below −0.5 with falling H100 → defensive (100% BIL) · otherwise neutral half book · Today: Z +0.77 → OFFENSIVE

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
65.8%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$3.01
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.03$1.03-18.1%38.0%-2.6%
B200$6.05$6.05+13.3%58.5%+6.5%
H100 SXM$3.01$3.01+5.6%65.6%+17.5%
H200$4.50$4.50+9.5%94.9%-3.7%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.3%72.0%+8.8%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.4622026-08-29
Openai$0.2422026-08-29
Google$0.5242026-08-29
Deepseek$0.0912026-08-29
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — trailing 21 trading days (Alpaca 1M history window) LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 28, 2026 · page generated August 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM ET
Trailing Days
21
Total Return
+0.00%
Sharpe
0.04
Sortino
0.06
Calmar
0.00
Max DD
-1.75%
Trade Win Rate
61%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Hormuz Carry EST $795 +34.69% 3.43 7.01 401.73 -26.9% 50% +25.8% 16
BTC Regime Gate EST $4,484 +23.18% 6.47 15.94 310.98 -3.2% 55% +6.2% 22
Maple EST $4,670 +12.29% 2.84 2.57 20.79 -13.3% 68% +8.2% 22
Earnings Momentum EST $6,727 +7.66% 2.31 4.41 12.93 -10.3% 50% +5.1% 22
Shipping EST $1,787 +7.04% 3.27 8.23 42.76 -5.6% 57% +4.4% 14
Bond Rotation EST $4,858 +3.45% 2.20 3.46 9.45 -5.0% 45% +3.0% 22
Unattributed EST $2,105 +1.79% 1.11 1.50 10.06 -11.0% 33% +13.4% 6
Trump Tweet EST $1,804 -1.89% -0.85 -0.74 -3.02 -8.6% 50% +3.1% 16
DRAM EST $22,153 -2.37% -1.96 -1.97 -6.82 -4.9% 40% +2.6% 15
Memory Rotation EST $5,654 -12.65% -1.27 -1.40 -3.48 -22.6% 50% +7.2% 22
Portfolio row: actual Alpaca paper-account equity. Strategy rows tagged EST: P&L attributed per sleeve from the real Alpaca fill timeline × daily closes (realized + unrealized, BIL/SHV cash at 0%) — fill-timing attribution, hence estimates. Through August 28, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
25%
$22,452.85
Bond Rotation
5%
$4,644.00
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$13,893.09
Earnings Momentum
15%
$11,016.46
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
GPU Tilt
5%
$4,823.14
BTC Regime Gate
5%
$4,549.78
Braided-Delta
5%
$0.00
Waterhole
5%
$0.00
Available Cash: $16,542.90 Total Deployed: $68,406.06 / $84,948.96
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $7,026.73

Trading Discipline SCORE 55

55 ATTENTION
score history builds one point per dashboard generation
✓ Max Daily Loss worst day -1.07% vs -2.0% limit
✓ Max Drawdown -1.75% vs -8.0% limit
✓ Guard Hygiene no active alerts
✓ Active Trading Days 20 of last 21 sessions vs 16 minimum
✗ Beat the Market book +0.00% vs SPY +3.22% same window; alpha -3.22pp vs >= +1.0pp
✓ No Margin buying power $16,543 vs cash $16,543
✗ Allocation Drift 5 sleeve(s) beyond ±2.5pp of target
Score = 100 minus severity-weighted penalties (daily loss, drawdown, guard alerts, idle sessions, profit shortfall, margin use, allocation drift). Objectives shown "—" are unscored pending data. Built 2026-08-31.

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-31 13:00 EST