Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-31 07:00 EST · data as of 2026-08-28
Portfolio Value
$84,080.59
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-31 7:00 AM EST
Today's P&L
$-63.76 (-0.08%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,919.41 (-15.92%)
Cash Available
$10,039.40

HMM Regime Overlay MONITOR

Regime
LOW-VOL
Confidence
59.9%
Memory Rotation 25% · Maple 20% · Earnings Momentum 15% · Bond Rotation 5% · GPU Tilt 5% · Ndx Momentum 5% · Hormuz Carry 5% · BTC Regime Gate 5% · Braided-Delta 5% · Waterhole 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 5%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; percentages shown = canonical allocator targets (hmm_overlay itself is monitor-only, not wired to execution) · updated 2026-08-31 12:02 AM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
9.56
total vol risk
Sortino
20.49
downside only
Calmar
199.28
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-0.9%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+10.23%
24 days live
Trade Win Rate
66%
80 wins / 122 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-28.

Cumulative P&L LIVE PAPER

$-15,405.01
122 closed round-trips · net realized P&L, FIFO-matched fills
Realized P&L of each closed round-trip (sell matched to earlier buys, FIFO) summed in exit-date order. Cash-venue round-trips (BIL/SGOV/SHV) and sub-$25 dust trades are excluded, same as the Strategy Summary. Unrealized positions are not included. Not a backtest.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 122 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-15,405.01
all closed trades
Win Rate
65.57%
80 wins / 122 closed
Profit Factor
0.38
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
122
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-126.27
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 25 of 122 (20.5% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$-23.13▲ $129.72
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
68.00%▲ 3.1pp
17 wins / 25 OOS
Profit Factor
0.34▼ 0.04
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
N/A— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
25▼ 72
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▼ 10.63%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
DIG Memory Rotation 248.989 $67.06 $67.16 $16,722.10 $24.82 (+0.15%)
BIL Memory Rotation 169.051 $91.61 $91.66 $15,495.21 $8.27 (+0.05%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 6.932 $714.23 $715.65 $4,960.86 $9.84 (+0.20%)
BNS Maple 45.5999 $94.31 $92.39 $4,212.98 $-87.66 (-2.04%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $208.00 $4,084.04 $-150.93 (-3.56%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $152.91 $4,009.10 $369.95 (+10.17%)
DELL Earnings Momentum 7.5467 $455.50 $456.00 $3,441.28 $3.77 (+0.11%)
ECAT Earnings Momentum 216.6043 $15.87 $15.38 $3,331.37 $-106.14 (-3.09%)
SOXX GPU Tilt 6.1828 $519.23 $510.45 $3,156.02 $-54.26 (-1.69%)
FIVE — 11.1089 $255.00 $240.20 $2,668.36 $-164.41 (-5.80%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $260.10 $2,634.79 $61.45 (+2.39%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $76.01 $2,054.68 $-81.09 (-3.80%)
SMH GPU Tilt 3.1099 $566.81 $555.50 $1,727.55 $-35.19 (-2.00%)
ENB Maple 29.5347 $50.39 $50.45 $1,490.02 $1.80 (+0.12%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $38.40 $1,138.82 $71.18 (+6.67%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $566.50 $990.23 $-77.41 (-7.25%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $254.18 $618.35 $113.12 (+22.39%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $89.22 $518.25 $13.01 (+2.57%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $120.01 $486.42 $-18.82 (-3.73%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $204.23 $170.19 $-3.73 (-2.15%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $121.00 $107.26 $0.39 (+0.37%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $62.41 $23.31 $-0.72 (-2.98%)
Last updated 2026-08-31 7:00 AM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-31 4:02 AM ECAT BUY 216.6043 $15.87 Earnings Momentum
2026-08-30 8:00 PM DELL BUY 7.5467 $455.50 Earnings Momentum
2026-08-28 11:11 AM SMH BUY 0.0555 $564.61 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:11 AM SOXX BUY 0.0606 $518.03 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:10 AM SMH BUY 0.0644 $565.11 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:10 AM SOXX BUY 0.0696 $518.50 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:09 AM SMH BUY 0.0733 $565.27 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:09 AM SOXX BUY 0.0762 $518.49 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:08 AM SMH BUY 0.065 $565.02 GPU Tilt
2026-08-28 11:08 AM SOXX BUY 0.0697 $518.27 GPU Tilt

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → MU · momentum 13.34% · VIX 14.43
OFFENSIVE: MU above SMA80 with 20d momentum=13.34%. VIX=14.4; vol-scaled weight=54.8% (20d realized vol=54.8%, target=30%); rerisk_gate: 30Y -7bp/5d <= 0bp, target_vol 25%→30% · Re-risk gate: 30Y -7bp/5d <= 0bp, target_vol 25%→30%
Allocation 25% · deployed $32,217.31 (38.3% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$33.09
Holdings: DIG $16,722.10 · BIL $15,495.21
Updated 2026-08-31 12:02 AM EST
Maple Sleeve PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · account holdings $14,096.90 (16.8% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$129.10
Holdings: BNS $4,212.98 · AEM $4,084.04 · WPM $4,009.10 · ENB $1,490.02 · RY $170.19 · TD $107.26 · TRP $23.31
Updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: 10Y -1.8bp/5d <= +15bp, QQQ unchanged
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,960.86 (5.9% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$9.84
Holdings: QQQ $4,960.86
Updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → DELL, ECAT
Allocation 15% · deployed $10,956.38 (13.0% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-189.69
Holdings: DELL $3,441.28 · ECAT $3,331.37 · BAH $2,054.68 · EXLS $1,138.82 · LMT $990.23
Updated 2026-08-28 9:02 PM EST
GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
OFFENSIVE → SOXX, SMH
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,883.58 (5.8% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-89.44
Holdings: SOXX $3,156.02 · SMH $1,727.55
Updated 2026-08-27 8:43 PM EST
Braided-Delta LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY timing sleeve — sector residual-dispersion braid plus breadth and basket confirmation; close signal executes next open. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
long → SPY
Holding SPY from 2026-07-28; no frozen exit condition at 2026-08-28 close
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 12:01 AM EST
Waterhole LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY stress ladder — robust SPY volatility/drawdown and TLT-return composite; 0/40/70/100% exposure. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
partial → SPY, BIL
Waterhole P<0.5 70% band: P=+0.088; target 70% SPY / 30% BIL at the next open
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 12:01 AM EST
BTC Regime Gate LIVE PAPER
EMA20d>EMA200d long/cash timing of BTC — OFFENSIVE=IBIT (spot BTC ETF), DEFENSIVE=BIL. Backtest 4.66y (USDT+USDC, 25bp costs): +22.6% CAGR / -32.6% maxDD vs B&H +11.6% / -67.6%; ~1.8 flips/yr. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
OFFENSIVE → IBIT
EMA20d > EMA200d (spread +133bp) — long IBIT
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-31 12:01 AM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 0.0 · 0 candidates · feeds: polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
No pending trade
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
VNQ Reversion ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
Last run 2026-08-31 2:57 AM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-30 2:33 PM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
0.0
Feeds Used
polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
reddit, twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-31 12:03 AM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Monday, 2026-08-31
CISS 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback -25.51% and runup -42.72% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FRO 2026-08-31 (Monday) 3 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.98% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
Tuesday, 2026-09-01
DELL 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.18% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -7.04% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
CRDO 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.32% and runup -10.45% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GTLB 2026-09-01 (Tuesday) 4 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.5% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
Wednesday, 2026-09-02
ECAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days TRIGGERED Pullback -0.31% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -0.58% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AGX 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -7.26% and runup -27.75% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
AI 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 4.34% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
AVGO 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.8% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BCAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.84% and runup 0.88% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BSTZ 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 2.17% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
CAL 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -3.72% and runup -6.66% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CXM 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 6.06% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 18.43% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
DAKT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.03% and runup -5.44% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FIVE 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -4.64% and runup -1.08% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GIII 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.08% and runup -1.3% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GOLD 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.84% and runup 3.52% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-28 9:02 PM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
1 / 5
Open Legs
2 / 2
Signal
2026-08-28 9:02 PM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
DELL OPEN $456.24 (est.) $485.90 $431.15 $456.00 $3.77 (+0.11%)
ECAT OPEN $15.39 (est.) $16.39 $14.54 $15.38 $-106.14 (-3.09%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET

GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER

H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL. Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
OFFENSIVE
Target Book
SOXX 60% / SMH 40%
Signal
2026-08-27 8:43 PM
GPU tilt ON: H100 mom=+3.0% Z=+0.57 5d_avg=+0.77% → long semis
H100 Current $/GPU-hr20d Ago20d Momentum20d Z-Score5d Avg Return
$2.76 $2.68 +3.0% +0.57 +0.77%
Z-score above +0.5 with rising H100 → offensive (60% SOXX / 40% SMH) · below −0.5 with falling H100 → defensive (100% BIL) · otherwise neutral half book · Today: Z +0.57 → OFFENSIVE

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
65.8%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$3.01
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.03$1.03-18.1%38.0%-2.6%
B200$6.05$6.05+13.3%58.5%+6.5%
H100 SXM$3.01$3.01+5.6%65.6%+17.5%
H200$4.50$4.50+9.5%94.9%-3.7%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.3%72.0%+8.8%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.4622026-08-29
Openai$0.2422026-08-29
Google$0.5242026-08-29
Deepseek$0.0912026-08-29
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — since July 28, 2026 LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 28, 2026 · page generated August 31, 2026 at 07:00 AM ET
Days Live
24
Total Return
+10.23%
Sharpe
9.56
Sortino
20.49
Calmar
199.28
Max DD
-0.89%
Trade Win Rate
66%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Maple $14,097 +20.81% 6.39 20.41 144.09 -4.4% 71% +4.9% 24
Earnings Momentum $10,956 +8.57% 3.55 13.40 26.10 -5.3% 50% +3.9% 24
Memory Rotation $32,217 +8.32% 3.91 8.10 34.75 -3.8% 58% +4.6% 24
Bond Rotation $4,961 +6.07% 3.05 6.55 24.32 -3.5% 46% +3.4% 24
GPU Tilt $4,884 +3.81% 1.06 1.84 5.40 -8.9% 58% +7.9% 24
All metrics computed from actual tracked paper-account equity (state/per_strategy_equity) through August 28, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
25%
$32,217.31
Bond Rotation
5%
$4,960.86
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$14,096.90
Earnings Momentum
15%
$10,956.38
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
GPU Tilt
5%
$4,883.58
BTC Regime Gate
5%
$0.00
Braided-Delta
5%
$0.00
Waterhole
5%
$0.00
Available Cash: $10,039.40 Total Deployed: $74,041.19 / $84,080.59
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $6,926.16

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-31 07:00 EST