Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-09-02 16:51 EST · data as of 2026-09-01
Portfolio Value
$84,726.85
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-09-02 4:51 PM EST
Today's P&L
$904.22 (+1.08%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,273.15 (-15.27%)
Cash Available
$6,126.31

HMM Regime Overlay MONITOR

Regime
LOW-VOL
Confidence
87.9%
Memory Rotation 25% · Maple 20% · Earnings Momentum 15% · Bond Rotation 5% · GPU Tilt 5% · Ndx Momentum 5% · Hormuz Carry 5% · BTC Regime Gate 5% · Braided-Delta 5% · Waterhole 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 5%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; percentages shown = canonical allocator targets (hmm_overlay itself is monitor-only, not wired to execution) · updated 2026-09-01 9:30 PM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
1.14
total vol risk
Sortino
1.68
downside only
Calmar
5.27
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-2.1%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+0.97%
trailing 23 days · incl. live intraday mark
Trade Win Rate
54%
112 wins / 206 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-09-01.

Cumulative P&L LIVE PAPER

$-14,726.20
206 closed round-trips · net realized P&L, FIFO-matched fills
Realized P&L of each closed round-trip (sell matched to earlier buys, FIFO) summed in exit-date order. Cash-venue round-trips (BIL/SGOV/SHV) and sub-$25 dust trades are excluded, same as the Strategy Summary. Unrealized positions are not included. Not a backtest.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 206 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-14,726.20
all closed trades
Win Rate
54.37%
112 wins / 206 closed
Profit Factor
0.43
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
206
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-71.49
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 42 of 206 (20.4% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$0.07▲ $89.88
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
40.48%▼ 17.5pp
17 wins / 42 OOS
Profit Factor
1.02▲ 0.59
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
4651.96%— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
42▼ 122
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▲ 141.00%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
DIG Memory Rotation 175.3068 $70.97 $72.38 $12,688.71 $247.05 (+1.99%)
BIL Memory Rotation 121.7053 $91.45 $91.40 $11,123.86 $-5.98 (-0.05%)
BNS Maple 67.9729 $93.43 $93.31 $6,342.55 $-8.34 (-0.13%)
OLLI Earnings Momentum 61.2773 $75.00 $74.30 $4,552.91 $-42.89 (-0.93%)
IBIT BTC Regime Gate 100.2767 $44.38 $43.80 $4,392.12 $-58.03 (-1.30%)
SOXX GPU Tilt 8.6459 $495.84 $499.50 $4,318.64 $31.64 (+0.74%)
SPY Bond Rotation 5.4916 $764.60 $764.50 $4,198.35 $-0.54 (-0.01%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $150.02 $3,933.33 $294.17 (+8.08%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $196.65 $3,861.19 $-373.79 (-8.83%)
DELL — 7.5467 $455.50 $486.70 $3,672.97 $235.46 (+6.85%)
ECAT — 216.6043 $15.87 $15.24 $3,301.05 $-136.46 (-3.97%)
FIVE — 11.1089 $255.00 $259.30 $2,880.54 $47.77 (+1.69%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $241.73 $2,448.70 $-124.64 (-4.84%)
ENB Maple 40.1787 $50.48 $50.31 $2,021.29 $-7.12 (-0.35%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $74.47 $2,013.15 $-122.62 (-5.74%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $36.91 $1,094.63 $26.99 (+2.53%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $533.17 $931.98 $-135.66 (-12.71%)
QQQ Bond Rotation 0.932 $714.23 $708.56 $660.35 $-5.28 (-0.79%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $258.39 $628.59 $123.36 (+24.42%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $130.89 $530.51 $25.27 (+5.00%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $85.62 $497.35 $-7.89 (-1.56%)
MRVL Ndx Momentum 2 $206.60 $205.39 $410.78 $-2.42 (-0.59%)
NBIS Ndx Momentum 2 $204.73 $202.99 $405.98 $-3.48 (-0.85%)
WBD Ndx Momentum 14 $28.44 $28.39 $397.52 $-0.64 (-0.16%)
SMH GPU Tilt 0.6585 $542.67 $548.78 $361.37 $4.02 (+1.13%)
TER Ndx Momentum 1 $341.01 $340.00 $340.00 $-1.01 (-0.30%)
LRCX Ndx Momentum 1 $288.03 $287.90 $287.90 $-0.13 (-0.04%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $207.86 $173.21 $-0.71 (-0.41%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $121.47 $107.67 $0.81 (+0.76%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $62.49 $23.34 $-0.69 (-2.86%)
Last updated 2026-09-02 4:51 PM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-09-02 3:46 PM WBD BUY 14 $28.44 Ndx Momentum
2026-09-02 3:46 PM TER BUY 1 $341.01 Ndx Momentum
2026-09-02 3:46 PM NBIS BUY 2 $204.73 Ndx Momentum
2026-09-02 3:46 PM MRVL BUY 2 $206.60 Ndx Momentum
2026-09-02 3:46 PM LRCX BUY 1 $288.03 Ndx Momentum
2026-09-02 2:08 PM DIG SELL 5.8852 $72.46 Memory Rotation
2026-09-02 9:36 AM DIG SELL 7.3405 $71.58 Memory Rotation
2026-09-02 9:35 AM DIG SELL 13.9254 $71.43 Memory Rotation
2026-09-02 9:34 AM DIG SELL 20 $71.31 Memory Rotation
2026-09-02 9:24 AM DIG BUY 58.355 $72.18 Memory Rotation

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → DIG · momentum 21.63% · VIX 16.34
OFFENSIVE: DIG above SMA80 with 20d momentum=21.63%. VIX=16.3; vol-scaled weight=52.4% (20d realized vol=47.7%, target=25%); rerisk_gate: 30Y +9.4bp/5d > 0bp, target_vol=25% · Re-risk gate: 30Y +9.4bp/5d > 0bp, target_vol=25%
Allocation 25% · deployed $23,812.57 (28.1% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$241.07
Holdings: DIG $12,688.71 · BIL $11,123.86
Updated 2026-09-01 9:30 PM EST
Maple Sleeve LIVE PAPER
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · deployed $16,462.58 (19.4% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-95.66
Holdings: BNS $6,342.55 · WPM $3,933.33 · AEM $3,861.19 · ENB $2,021.29 · RY $173.21 · TD $107.67 · TRP $23.34
Updated 2026-09-01 9:30 PM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → BIL
Yield filter: 10Y +15.7bp/5d, QQQ→BIL
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,858.70 (5.7% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-5.82
Holdings: SPY $4,198.35 · QQQ $660.35
Updated 2026-09-01 9:30 PM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 9:00 PM ET, GTC entries at next bridge pass, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → ASAN, OLLI
Allocation 15% · deployed $8,592.66 (10.1% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-274.19
Holdings: OLLI $4,552.91 · BAH $2,013.15 · EXLS $1,094.63 · LMT $931.98
Updated 2026-09-02 1:55 AM EST
GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
NEUTRAL → SOXX, SMH, BIL
GPU tilt NEUTRAL: H100 mom=+16.0% Z=-0.44 5d_avg=+0.17% → half position
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,680.01 (5.5% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$35.67
Holdings: SOXX $4,318.64 · SMH $361.37
Updated 2026-09-01 5:31 PM EST
Braided-Delta LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY timing sleeve — sector residual-dispersion braid plus breadth and basket confirmation; close signal executes next open. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
cash → BIL
Braided-Delta breadth exit at 2026-09-01 close; target BIL at the next open
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-09-02 8:01 AM EST
Waterhole LIVE PAPER
LIVE SPY stress ladder — robust SPY volatility/drawdown and TLT-return composite; 0/40/70/100% exposure. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
long → SPY
Waterhole P<0 full-risk band: P=-0.101; target 100% SPY / 0% BIL at the next open
Allocation 5% · deployed $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-09-02 8:01 AM EST
BTC Regime Gate LIVE PAPER
EMA20d>EMA200d long/cash timing of BTC — OFFENSIVE=IBIT (spot BTC ETF), DEFENSIVE=BIL. Backtest 4.66y (USDT+USDC, 25bp costs): +22.6% CAGR / -32.6% maxDD vs B&H +11.6% / -67.6%; ~1.8 flips/yr. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
OFFENSIVE → IBIT
EMA20d > EMA200d (spread +311bp) — long IBIT
Allocation 5% · deployed $4,392.12 (5.2% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-58.03
Holdings: IBIT $4,392.12
Updated 2026-09-02 8:00 AM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 0.0 · 0 candidates · feeds: polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-09-01 9:30 PM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-09-01 9:31 PM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-09-01 9:30 PM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
Pending: BUY AAPL ($750.00), BUY GOOGL ($750.00) · AFTER_HOURS
Last run 2026-09-02 4:18 PM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-09-01 9:31 PM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-09-02 8:00 AM EST
VNQ Reversion ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
Last run 2026-09-01 9:31 PM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-09-02 3:17 PM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
0.0
Feeds Used
polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
reddit, twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-09-01 9:30 PM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Wednesday, 2026-09-02
OLLI 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) TRIGGERED Pullback -1.16% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -5.08% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AGX 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -6.42% and runup -26.81% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
AI 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.04% and runup 4.76% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
AVGO 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback 0.68% and runup -2.72% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BCAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.58% and runup 0.25% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CAL 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -5.37% and runup -9.13% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CXM 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -3.5% and runup 9.99% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
DAKT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.52% and runup -0.36% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
ECAT 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -1.3% and runup -0.2% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FIVE 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -1.03% and runup 2.75% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GIII 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -2.57% and runup -4.6% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GOLD 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -4.15% and runup 3.15% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
HPE 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -4.04% and runup -8.66% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
MEI 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback 2.23% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 14.43% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
NTAP 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -2.57% and runup -10.53% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
NTSK 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -4.41% and runup -8.59% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
PHR 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.77% and runup 3.5% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
REX 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback 0.97% and runup -4.83% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
SNOW 2026-09-02 (Wednesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -1.52% and runup -1.7% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Thursday, 2026-09-03
ASAN 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day TRIGGERED Pullback -1.48% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 7.31% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AMBA 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -2.72% and runup -9.34% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BRC 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -2.14% and runup -4% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CIEN 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -6.43% and runup -11.15% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CPB 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback 1.07% and runup 3.72% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
DOCU 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback 1.62% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
FIZZ 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.79% and runup 0.67% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GCO 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -2.56% and runup -6.63% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GWRE 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Runup 13.12% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
IOT 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -3.69% and runup -1.31% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
KFY 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.44% and runup 0.93% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
LULU 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.07% and runup -0.85% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
MAMA 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -3.69% and runup -2.74% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
NX 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -4.33% and runup -7.6% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
PATH 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Runup 16.43% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
PDI 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.06% and runup 0.07% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
PDO 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.29% and runup -3.43% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
PL 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -5.04% and runup -17.55% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
RQI 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.9% and runup -1.22% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
SWBI 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.33% and runup -9.88% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
TTAN 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.85% and runup 4.76% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
TTC 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.97% and runup 1.65% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
USA 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.97% and runup -1.5% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
UTF 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.72% and runup -0.81% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
VSXY 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -3.9% and runup 0.29% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
WLY 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.39% and runup 2.5% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
ZGN 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -3.72% and runup -3.19% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
ZS 2026-09-03 (Thursday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.84% and runup -3.95% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Monday, 2026-09-07
CGNT 2026-09-07 (Monday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -3.23% and runup -5.91% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
FCEL 2026-09-07 (Monday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback -5.59% and runup -21.29% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
GME 2026-09-07 (Monday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 3.03% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
SWVL 2026-09-07 (Monday) 5 days NO SETUP Pullback 33.17% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 165.97% > 10% cap (already run up too much)
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-09-02 1:55 AM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
0 / 5
Open Legs
1 / 2
Signal
2026-09-02 1:55 AM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
ASAN ORDER PENDING $9.83 (est.) $10.47 $9.29 — —
OLLI OPEN $75.00 $79.88 $70.88 $74.30 $-42.89 (-0.93%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check 2026-09-02 3:40 AM

TimesFM-3 Shadow Research GLD · 21dPAPER / RESEARCH

Zero-shot 330M foundation model (Google, non-commercial checkpoint) vs the forecast_v2 hybrid Monte-Carlo baseline. Walk-forward: 504d context → 21d horizon. Directional Brier = mean((p_up − actual)²); 0.25 = coin flip. Shadow only — no positions. Last run 2026-09-01 7:11 PM.
TimesFM-3 (GEPA champion config)
MAE (21d)
$9.80
Dir Hit
65.7%
Brier (prob.)
0.2271
CRPS
3.9445
Hybrid v2 (baseline)
MAE (21d)
$10.39
Dir Hit
62.9%
Brier (prob.)
0.2370
GEPA champion (holdout-locked): selection Brier 0.2233 over 21 windows · holdout Brier 0.2043 over 14 locked windows · dir 71.4% · ctx 504 · cov QQQ+DXY+GDX · method median_binary
promising — passed holdout bar on a small adaptive sample; confirm on rolling basis before any weight

Public.com Live Trading account 5OI23198 (Brokerage 2)● LIVE — Public.com

Real-money automated strategies on the Public.com brokerage account. Data below is read live from Public.com (portfolio, transactions) and from each strategy's local state at site render time — as of 4:51 PM ET, Sep 2. Every source carries its own as-of stamp; stale sources are flagged red.
Equity
$1,288.58
Cash
$1,100.00
Buying Power
$1,000.00
Open positions
SymbolQuantityMarket ValueType
SMH0.3651$188.58EQUITY
Transaction history (most recent first)
Time (ET)TypeDescriptionNet
3:55 PM ET, Sep 1TRADE / TRADEBUY 0.18334 SMH at 545.4339$-100.00
8:08 PM ET, Sep 1MONEY_MOVEMENT / DEPOSITDeposit $1000.00$1,000.00
3:55 PM ET, Sep 2TRADE / TRADEBUY 0.18176 SMH at 550.155$-100.00
4:15 PM ET, Sep 2MONEY_MOVEMENT / DEPOSITDeposit $100.00$100.00
Strategies
BURST-XS3 Crypto Momentum BTC/ETH/SOL · daily 8:01 PM ET
Executor: Hermes cron bot (bot.py) — 8:01 PM ET nightly · Last run 8:03 AM ET, Sep 2 · State healthy
Position
CASH (USDC)
Days Left
0
Notional / Trade
$500.00 (Tier-1; auto-upgrades to $3,000 at equity >= $3,900)
Fee Tier
0.60%/side (120bp RT) until $10k/mo volume -> 0.50%
Regime Gate
ON (BTC > EMA100)
Sig (last close)
BTC -0.4668 · ETH -0.3714 · SOL -0.6623
Recent runs
Run (ET)TargetTradesReason
3:17 PM ET, Sep 2USDCno tradeno trigger, no position -> cash
1:38 PM ET, Sep 2USDCno tradeno trigger, no position -> cash
1:34 PM ET, Sep 2USDCno tradeno trigger, no position -> cash
1:34 PM ET, Sep 2USDCno tradeno trigger, no position -> cash
1:28 PM ET, Sep 2USDCno tradeno trigger, no position -> cash
σ-burst continuation (entry >1.75σ of 14d vol), EMA100 regime gate, 6-day hold, one position. OOS at live fees: +1.4% CAGR (marginal); full-window +48.8% (est., EST-tagged).
Overnight Alpha — SMH weekdays · 3:55 PM ET buy → next-open sell
Executor: Public.com AI Agent 'Conditional SMH Day Trade' (public-side, autonomous) · Flag as of 12:34 PM ET, Sep 1 · current
Tonight (local cross-check)
SKIP — forecast-tail (edge 7.41% >= 5.0%)
Book
flat tonight
First live trade: 3:55 PM ET, Sep 1 — SMH limit buy $100.00 @ $545.47 limit; FILLED 0.18334 sh @ $545.43, $0.00 fees (valid until Nov 30, 2026)
Weekdays 3:45 PM ET: skip if SMH < 200-day SMA or QQQ 4-week return >= +12%; else buy $100 SMH at 3:55 PM ET (limit at ask +$0.05, cancel unfilled at close); sell ALL next morning at 9:30 AM ET market. Never short, no stop-loss, never hold past next open.
Holdout 2022-04→2026-08: +39.8% CAGR / Sharpe 1.80 / −13.5% maxDD (reference only)
Asia-gate London Gold weekdays · 3:00 AM buy → 8:00 AM sell (ET)
Executor: Public.com AI Agent 'Asia London gold' (public-side, autonomous) · Flag as of 7:11 PM ET, Sep 1 · current
Regime (weekly ask)
BULL
Flag detail
p_up 0.7, 21d median $427.30 vs $396.75 (+7.7%)
Weekly BULL/BEAR regime ask (trade only on BULL). Weekdays: 2:00 AM ET — GREEN if GLD now > 8:00 PM ET price; GREEN → buy $500 GLD at 3:00 AM ET (extended-hours limit near ask); sell ALL at 8:00 AM ET (limit near bid; market fallback 8:05 AM). RED/flat/incomplete → do nothing. Never short, never hold overnight, no stop-loss — the 8:00 AM exit is the exit.
2y net: +13.8% CAGR / Sharpe 1.98 / −4.4% maxDD / 59.8% win over 291 sessions (vs 4.5%/0.61 always-long). Flag: TimesFM-3 GEPA champion, holdout Brier 0.204, dir 71.4% (n=14, p≈0.18 — rolling confirmation pending).

GPU Tilt LIVE PAPER

H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL. Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
NEUTRAL
Target Book
SOXX 30% / SMH 20% / BIL 50%
Signal
2026-09-01 5:31 PM
GPU tilt NEUTRAL: H100 mom=+16.0% Z=-0.44 5d_avg=+0.17% → half position
H100 Current $/GPU-hr20d Ago20d Momentum20d Z-Score5d Avg Return
$2.9704 $2.56 +16.0% -0.44 +0.17%
Z-score above +0.5 with rising H100 → offensive (60% SOXX / 40% SMH) · below −0.5 with falling H100 → defensive (100% BIL) · otherwise neutral half book · Today: Z -0.44 → NEUTRAL

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
66.6%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$2.83
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.00$0.98-20.7%37.8%-4.8%
B200$6.40$6.46+19.8%58.7%+11.8%
H100 SXM$2.83$2.83-0.8%65.7%+4.0%
H200$4.51$4.47+9.6%94.1%-0.1%
RTX 5090$0.62$0.63-27.3%76.7%+21.2%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.4892026-08-31
Openai$0.3072026-08-31
Google$0.5232026-08-31
Deepseek$0.0972026-08-31
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — trailing 22 trading days (Alpaca 1M history window) LIVE PAPER

Last updated September 1, 2026 · page generated September 2, 2026 at 04:51 PM ET
Trailing Days
23
Total Return
+0.97%
Sharpe
1.14
Sortino
1.68
Calmar
5.27
Max DD
-2.13%
Trade Win Rate
54%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Hormuz Carry EST $795 +32.87% 3.41 7.22 437.20 -26.9% 47% +25.8% 15
Memory Rotation EST $17,113 +10.21% 2.67 7.58 31.75 -6.0% 52% +8.3% 23
Shipping EST $1,787 +7.04% 3.27 8.23 42.76 -5.6% 57% +4.4% 14
Bond Rotation EST $11,097 +1.35% 1.05 2.09 4.05 -3.9% 39% +2.5% 23
Value Dip EST $3,953 +0.85% 0.55 0.82 1.75 -5.8% 45% +3.4% 22
Ndx Momentum EST $1,842 +0.20% 0.30 0.71 0.14 -15.7% 43% +10.0% 23
Maple EST $4,698 -1.20% -0.00 -0.01 -0.60 -20.6% 61% +7.1% 23
BTC Regime Gate EST $4,453 -1.65% -5.23 — -31.35 -2.4% 33% +0.8% 3
DRAM EST $22,153 -2.37% -1.96 -1.97 -6.82 -4.9% 40% +2.6% 15
Trump Tweet EST $1,804 -3.35% -1.74 -1.51 -5.07 -8.6% 47% +3.1% 15
Earnings Momentum EST $4,324 -5.49% -1.04 -1.46 -3.35 -13.8% 43% +4.7% 23
Unattributed EST $3,016 -6.85% -0.48 -0.72 -2.47 -21.9% 39% +9.9% 23
GPU Tilt EST $42 -90.75% -10.39 -9.23 -1.10 -90.8% 20% +0.6% 5
Headline metrics: actual Alpaca paper-account equity (round-trips to ~flat over this window). Strategy rows tagged EST: P&L attributed per sleeve from the real Alpaca fill timeline × daily closes (realized + unrealized, BIL/SHV cash at 0%) — fill-timing attribution, hence estimates. Through September 1, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
25%
$23,812.57
Bond Rotation
5%
$4,858.70
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$16,462.58
Earnings Momentum
15%
$8,592.66
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$1,842.18
GPU Tilt
5%
$4,680.01
BTC Regime Gate
5%
$4,392.12
Braided-Delta
5%
$0.00
Waterhole
5%
$0.00
Available Cash: $6,126.31 Total Deployed: $78,600.54 / $84,726.85
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $13,959.71

Trading Discipline SCORE 42

42 BREACH
score, last 3 session(s)
✓ Max Daily Loss worst day -1.42% vs -2.0% limit
✓ Max Drawdown -2.13% vs -8.0% limit
✗ Guard Hygiene 7 active alert(s): LEVERAGED_NAME_OVER_5PCT_DIG_14.0pct, SINGLE_NAME_OVER_10PCT_BIL_13.2pct, SINGLE_NAME_OVER_5PCT_BNS_7.4pct…
✓ Active Trading Days 21 of last 22 sessions vs 16 minimum
✗ Beat the Market book -0.10% vs SPY +1.24% same window; alpha -1.34pp vs >= +1.0pp
✓ No Margin buying power $6,126 vs cash $6,126
✗ Allocation Drift 6 sleeve(s) beyond ±2.5pp of target
Score = 100 minus severity-weighted penalties (daily loss, drawdown, guard alerts, idle sessions, profit shortfall, margin use, allocation drift). Objectives shown "—" are unscored pending data. Built 2026-08-31.

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-09-02 16:51 EST