LIVE SPY timing sleeve — sector residual-dispersion braid plus breadth and basket confirmation; close signal executes next open. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
Last run 2026-09-10 4:55 PM ET
WaterholeESTACTIVESIGNAL-ONLY
LIVE SPY stress ladder — robust SPY volatility/drawdown and TLT-return composite; 0/40/70/100% exposure. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
Last run 2026-09-10 4:55 PM ET
BTC Regime GateESTACTIVESIGNAL-ONLY
EMA20d>EMA200d long/cash timing of BTC — OFFENSIVE=IBIT (spot BTC ETF), DEFENSIVE=BIL. Backtest 4.66y (USDT+USDC, 25bp costs): +22.6% CAGR / -32.6% maxDD vs B&H +11.6% / -67.6%; ~1.8 flips/yr. Flipped live 2026-08-30 (user directive; early flip).
Last run 2026-09-10 4:55 PM ET
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Maple SleeveESTRETIRED0% ALLOCATION
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-09-10 9:15 AM ET
Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL
Meme Mania
64.5
Feeds Used
reddit, polymarket, kalshi, twitter
Feeds Missing
kalshi: OK · polymarket: OK · reddit: OK · twitter: OK
Ticker
Meme Score
Suggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
Meme signal · 2026-09-09 9:32 PM ET
Earnings Calendar SCANNER
Ticker
Earnings Date
Days Until (at scan)
Decision
Reason
Thursday, 2026-09-10
ADBE EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
CPRT EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating
FEIM EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
Pullback 7.41% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 11.82% >= 10% cap (already run up too much); momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -3.17% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
HUIZ EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
LPTH EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
Pullback 9.54% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); price -16.11% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
ORCL EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
Pullback 6.58% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone); Runup 14.09% >= 10% cap (already run up too much)
SHOE EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
price -13.26% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
TEN EST
2026-09-10 (Thursday)
1 day
NO SETUP
momentum fading not stable/accelerating
Friday, 2026-09-11
ANAB EST
2026-09-11 (Friday)
2 days
NO SETUP
price -3.62% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
Monday, 2026-09-14
CBRL EST
2026-09-14 (Monday)
5 days
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -5.72% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
KMTS EST
2026-09-14 (Monday)
5 days
NO SETUP
momentum mixed not stable/accelerating; price -5.51% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
PLAY EST
2026-09-14 (Monday)
5 days
NO SETUP
price -18.24% below 50-day MA (trend gate)
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-09-09 9:01 PM ET
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Trading Days Since Signal EST
3 / 5
Open Legs
2 / 5
Signal
2026-09-07 9:02 PM ET
Symbol
Status
Entry
Target
Stop
Current
Unrealized P&L
CHWY EST
— · no live position confirmed
$23.66 EST
$25.20
$22.36
—
—
BAH EST
OPEN
—
—
—
$75.90
$-84.07 (-3.94%)
CMG EST
— · no live position confirmed
—
—
—
—
—
EXLS EST
— · no live position confirmed
—
—
—
—
—
LMT EST
OPEN
—
—
—
$530.82
$-139.78 (-13.09%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET · last check —
TimesFM-3 Shadow Research GLD · 21dPAPER / RESEARCH
Zero-shot 330M foundation model (Google, non-commercial checkpoint) vs the
forecast_v2 hybrid Monte-Carlo baseline. Walk-forward: 504d context → 21d horizon.
Directional Brier = mean((p_up − actual)²); 0.25 = coin flip. Shadow
only — no positions. Last run 2026-09-10 5:31 PM ET.
TimesFM-3 (GEPA champion config)
MAE (21d)
$9.73 EST
Dir Hit
54.3% EST
Brier (prob.)
0.2729 EST
CRPS
3.7648 EST
Hybrid v2 (baseline)
MAE (21d)
$nan EST
Dir Hit
51.4% EST
Brier (prob.)
0.2704 EST
GEPA champion
(holdout-locked):EST selection Brier 0.2233
over 21 windows · holdout Brier
0.2043
over 14 locked windows ·
dir 71.4% ·
ctx 504 · cov QQQ+DXY+GDX · method median_binary
promising — passed holdout bar on a small adaptive sample; confirm on rolling basis before any weight
Real-money automated strategies on the Public.com brokerage accounts, one
block per account. Data below comes from the stored Public.com portfolio/transaction snapshot and local strategy state,
as of 6:01pm ET, Sep 10. These are last observed values; a failed refresh can leave an older snapshot.
Each account and strategy carries its own as-of stamp.
Sizing: 15% of account equity per position, floor $400, cap 40% of equity, minimum entry $400; each buy = min(target, spendable funds − 0.65% fee reserve). De-risk ladder: after 2 consecutive losing exits the fraction is halved (f=0.075) until a winning trade. Replaced the $500→$3,000 Tier-2 ratchet on Sep 4, 2026.
Management: Exits: 6-night hold timer (HOLD_DAYS=6; re-trigger resets, higher-sig coin wins) and BTC > EMA100 regime gate (flip → cash). Kill gates ENFORCED in code (pre-registered SCALP_PROMPT.md): −35% drawdown from the ledger high-water mark, trailing-12-month return < −15%, avg execution shortfall > 15bp/side (20-side window, from 10 sides) — a trip refuses new entries, alerts once, and sticks until reviewed. Exactly-once orders (durable intent + zero SDK retries), 8dp raw-POST sells, process lock, same-signal-date guard, data-glitch gate, crypto-only open-order guard. Schedule: 8:01 pm ET trade, 9:15 pm watchdog, 10:31 pm catch-up, 9:30 am liveness, 8:30 am status line. 100% LLM-free.
Position
CASH (USDC)
Days Left
0
Sizing Tier
normal (f=0.15)
Target Notional
$610.08
Next Buy
$610.08 (full target)
Loss Streak
0 losing exits in a row
Ledger P&L
$0.00 realized · DD $0.00 from HWM
Fee Tier
0.60%/side (120bp RT; Public API tier for < $10k monthly crypto volume). 0.50% applies only in months with >= $10k volume — the backtest reaches that in 4 of 14 OOS months; NOT assumed by the bot (reserve 0.65%).
Regime Gate
ON (BTC > EMA100)
Sig (last close)
BTC -0.1061 · ETH -0.3454 · SOL -0.546
Recent runs
Run (ET)
Target
Trades
Reason
8:01pm ET, Sep 9
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
8:01pm ET, Sep 8
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
6:45am ET, Sep 8
USDC
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
8:01pm ET, Sep 7
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
8:02pm ET, Sep 6
—
no trade
no trigger, no position -> cash
Entry >1.75σ / 14d · EMA100 gate · 6-day hold / 1 position · backtest — (no artifact)
Executor: Public.com AI Agent 'Conditional SMH Day Trade' (public-side, autonomous) ·
Public-side gate not observed locally · STALE — flag >36h old
Account: Agent Cash Brok 1 - 5OI23198 cash
Sizing: 2.5% of account equity per trade, clamped to $100–$400 (prompt v2, Sep 4, 2026; PASTED into the Public-side agent 2026-09-04 — live).
Management: Entry: weekdays 3:45 pm ET gate — skip if SMH < 200-day SMA or QQQ 21-day return ≥ +12%; else 3:55 pm ET limit buy at ask + $0.05 (cancel unfilled at close). Exit: sell ALL at 9:30 am ET next day, market. Never short, no stop-loss, never hold past the next open, at most one buy per day. Kill rules (user-enforced): after 60 traded nights must beat the ungated and MA200-only books; stop if drawdown from peak > 35%.
Executor gate
not observed — decided on the Public-side agent
Book
—
Legacy model flag (research cross-check only, not the SMH executor): no-skip · — · as of 6:50pm ET, Sep 9 · 6:50pm ET, Sep 9
First live trade:
3:55 PM ET, Sep 1 — SMH limit buy $100.00 @ $545.47 limit;
FILLED 0.18334 sh @ $545.43, $0.00 fees (valid until Nov 30, 2026)
Weekdays 3:45 PM ET: skip if SMH < 200-day SMA or QQQ 4-week return >= +12%; else buy 2.5% of equity ($100–$400; prompt v2 PASTED 2026-09-04) of SMH at 3:55 PM ET (limit at ask +$0.05, cancel unfilled at close); sell ALL next morning at 9:30 AM ET market. Never short, no stop-loss, never hold past next open.
Asia-gate London Goldweekdays · 3:00 AM buy → 8:00 AM sell (ET)
Executor: Hermes cron executor (gold_bot.py, 6 phases) — LLM-free ·
Flag as of 5:31pm ET, Sep 10 · last observed
Account: Agent Cash Brok 1 - 5OI23198 cash
Sizing: 2.5% of account equity per session, clamped to $100–$400 (gold_bot.py target_notional, Sep 4, 2026); no partial entry below $90; buy also clamped by the daily funds allocator's headroom on this shared account.
Management: 6-phase weekday schedule (Hermes cron, LLM-free): 8:00 pm ET evening anchor → 2:00 am mark (GREEN if GLD > the 8:00 pm price, else RED) → 3:00 am buy (GREEN + BULL regime flag only; extended-hours LIMIT at ask + 1 tick) → 3:05 am cancel unfilled → 8:00 am sell ALL (LIMIT at bid − 1 tick) → 8:05 am sell fallback (market / marketable limit). Never short, never hold past 8:00 am, no stop-loss. Kill gates in code: after 60 traded sessions must beat always-long GLD; 120-session signal agreement must stay ≥ 51%.
Regime flag (weekly)
BULL
Flag detail
p_up 0.7, 21d median $414.92 vs $396.36 (+4.7%)
Kill gates
not tripped (60-trade vs GLD; 120-trade agreement ≥ 51%)
Weekly BULL/BEAR regime flag (trade only on BULL). Weekdays: 2:00 AM ET — GREEN if GLD now > 8:00 PM ET price; GREEN → buy 2.5% of equity ($100–$400) of GLD at 3:00 AM ET (extended-hours limit near ask; cancel unfilled at 3:05 AM); sell ALL at 8:00 AM ET (limit near bid; aggressive fallback if unfilled). RED/flat/incomplete → do nothing. Never short, never hold overnight, no stop-loss — the 8:00 AM exit is the exit.
2y net @0.6bp (GC=F basis): +13.8% CAGR / Sharpe 1.98 / −4.4% maxDD / 59.8% win / 291 sessions (long 4.5%/0.61). Live 2bp cost: ≈low-teens CAGR. Decaying edge: first ½ +28.4%/4.62 vs second ½ +4.0%/0.55 (London 17.1%→7.5%). Stop: last 60 trades < long GLD; 120-trade agreement <51%.
Alpaca Paper Sleeves Alpaca paper (separate broker)● PAPER — Alpaca
Paper-trading sleeves on the Alpaca paper account — a different broker from
Public.com, tracked separately. Hermes cron bilbo_paper — hourly 9:55am–3:55pm ET + 4:10pm ET reconcile
· State as of 4:10pm ET, Sep 8 (ledger.updated_et)
EST
Alpaca Paper SleevesBilbo v2 hourly · 9:55am–3:55pm ET
Executor: Hermes cron bilbo_paper — hourly 9:55am–3:55pm ET + 4:10pm ET reconcile ·
State as of 4:10pm ET, Sep 8 (ledger.updated_et) · STALE — no state update in 36h+
QQQ Sleeve
FLAT
Bilbo Long
3 open (MSFT, TSLA, SMCI)
Bilbo Dual Ledger
primary author-exits + shadow cap-only
Book
Alpaca paper — ~25bp equity risk/trade
Armed compression boxes
Symbol
Box Low
Box High
Grey Bars
Entry
MSFT
$493.81
$500.73
13
$511.58
SMCI
$36.61
$37.40
21
$37.97
TSLA
$350.36
$356.65
11
$371.97
Recent events
Time (ET)
Sleeve
Event
Detail
4:10pm ET, Sep 10
bilbo
Equity mark
1:56pm ET, Sep 10
bilbo
Skipped
AAPL g1_trend_gate_fail
4:11pm ET, Sep 9
bilbo
Equity mark
11:56am ET, Sep 9
bilbo
Skipped
META stop_distance_gt_6pct
12:38am ET, Sep 9
bilbo
Carveout reservation
Bilbo hourly (Megacap 20, v2 faithful): confirmed hourly close above the 5-grey-candle compression box, RTH closes only, trend gate vs prior-day daily EMA21; buy shares at next 5-min bar open; exits keyed to the stock — 5-min close below box low, or after a +1.0 daily-ATR run a trail giving back 75% of peak, or 10-trading-day cap. Dual ledger: primary author rules + shadow 10-day-cap-only on the same entries. Risk ~25bp equity/trade at the box-low stop, max 8 concurrent. QQQ EMA21 reversion: buy $500 QQQ at next open when QQQ close <= 0.95×EMA21, sell at the open 5 sessions later.
Bilbo v2 replication 2021–2026 (fit 86% vs author live; 0 spurious): +64bp/trade primary / +118bp/trade cap-only shadow, PF 1.40, day-cluster t=3.37 (n=1,758), net 1bp/side. Alpaca paper-only, 4-week forward gate.
8-Bot Options Desk ADVISORY · NO ORDERS
Snapshot Sep 10, 10:53 AM ET
Bots live · profiles
8/8EST
Last desk brief · bot08 run
Sep 10, 10:54 AM ET
Scheduler · execution only
8/8 last-run OKEST
Desk equity snapshot
$3,000.00
Owner cap
$3,000.00
Cap headroom · cap minus equity
$0.00EST
Open reservations · ledger
0EST
Active vetoes / flags · symbols
17EST
Audit findings · fixed / total
12/12 fixed · 0 openEST
DAG E2E · S1–S6
PASSSep 07, 07:39 PM ET
bot01Sep 10, 08:31 AM ET● OKscan
bot02Sep 07, 03:29 PM ET● OKscan
bot03Sep 10, 09:16 AM ET● OKidle
bot04Sep 10, 08:01 AM ET● OKscan
bot05Sep 10, 09:02 AM ET● OKflag
bot06Sep 10, 09:16 AM ET● OKroll
bot07Sep 10, 10:39 AM ET● OKrisk
bot08Sep 10, 10:54 AM ET● OKbrief
EST counts / headroom · audit A1–A10, C2, bot08 budget
ETF CSP Sleeve · 4-Lot Diversified PAPER · NO ORDERS
Candidates sit GATE_PENDING until a locked out-of-sample window exists, then scripts/candidate_gate.py (deflated-Sharpe, novelty, spanning) rules on paper admission. Weekly cycle: Mondays 8:00 AM ET.
Market-Neutral Lab PAPER · READ-ONLY · 5OI24098
short 2 MSTR @ $142.50 · long 9 IBIT @ $45.11 · opened 2026-09-07 EST
marks: MSTR $129.34 · IBIT $43.66 · gross $652 EST
Pair paper P&L
+$13 EST
Net delta drift
+1.2% EST
MSTR vs IBIT (premium residual)
-6.2% EST
Margin est
$424 EST
C4 SPAC carry
IBAC $10.88 · P&L −$32 · gap vs trust -2.18% · extension vote 2026-09-24 EST
NHIC $10.62 · P&L −$2 · gap vs trust -0.40% · redemption 2026-09-15 EST
Put debits (Oct-16) ETHA 2026-10-16P 19 · IV +52% · mid $1.420 EST · nearest strike to underlying last $18.555 (quote Sep 10, 2026 3:55 PM ET) UNG 2026-10-16P 10 · IV +42% · mid $0.425 EST · nearest strike to underlying last $10.1815 (quote Sep 10, 2026 3:55 PM ET)
HTB probe · Sep 10, 2026 10:00 AM ET · 27/28 OK
Tracker as of Sep 10, 2026 3:35 PM ET · terms/chains snapshot Sep 10, 2026 3:55 PM ET
EST paper book · no broker positions · missing —
GPU Tilt ESTLIVE PAPER
H100 daily $/GPU-hour (Ornn OCPI) leads semiconductor ETFs by ~1 month (Granger p=0.0017 for SOXX). Z-score gated daily signal — OFFENSIVE=60% SOXX/40% SMH, DEFENSIVE=BIL.
Pricing source: Ornn Data OCPI.
Mode
NEUTRAL
Target Book
SOXX 30% / SMH 20% / BIL 50%
Signal
2026-09-10 5:30 PM ET
GPU tilt NEUTRAL: H100 mom=+1.0% Z=-0.95 5d_avg=+0.52% → half position
H100 Signal $/GPU-hr
20d Ago
20d Momentum
20d Z-Score
5d Avg Return
$2.9592
$2.93
+1.0%
-0.95
+0.52%
Z >+0.5 + rising: 60% SOXX / 40% SMH · <−0.5 + falling: 100% BIL · else ½ book · Last signal: Z -0.95 → NEUTRAL
⚡ VIX for Compute
Ornn daily GPU price observations. Returns and annualized volatility are calculated estimates over the dated history shown; unavailable statistics: —.
Compute VIX (avg)
65.5% EST
H100 last daily index
$2.84
Sep 10, 04:00 PM ET
GPU
Daily $/hr
Observed (ET)
History return
Ann. vol
20-session momentum
History window
A100 SXM4
$0.98
Sep 10, 04:00 PM ET
-22.2% EST
39.6% EST
-9.3% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-10
B200
$6.89
Sep 10, 04:00 PM ET
+29.1% EST
57.0% EST
+0.3% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-10
H100 SXM
$2.84
Sep 10, 04:00 PM ET
-0.4% EST
65.4% EST
-2.1% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-10
H200
$4.93
Sep 10, 04:00 PM ET
+20.0% EST
91.4% EST
-9.4% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-10
RTX 5090
$0.66
Sep 10, 04:00 PM ET
-22.4% EST
74.0% EST
+26.9% EST
2026-05-25 → 2026-09-10
LLM Token Index
$/Mtok (blended)
Observed
Anthropic
$1.641
2026-09-09
Deepseek
$0.092
2026-09-09
Google
$0.483
2026-09-09
Openai
$0.557
2026-09-09
Ornn gpu_history.json / otpi_history.json · historical, not spot
VIX > 40 Episode Alarm ARMED
Advisory only — no orders. Hourly watch: a VIX close above 40 opens an
episode (alert fires once); a close back below 35 re-arms. Signal replicated 2010→2026:
the 17 close-episode starts (2010/2011/2015/2020/2025) marked the best forward-entry windows
of the period. 2018/2024 spikes crossed 40 intraday only — closes are the rule.
VIX last close
14.5
Status
Quiet — no open episode
1-yr forward after episode start (median / worst)
+31% / +18%
Episodes since 2010
17
Alarm cron 65bfb9709462 · health blind_hours=0 (data OK at last hourly check) ·
alert posts to the trading chat; never a trade order. Updated 2026-09-09 6:55 PM ET
ATR SPY Put Credit Spread ESTLIVE PAPER
Weekly −1·ATR SPY 10-wide put credit spread, 1 lot, same-week Friday expiry.
Sell short strike at prior weekly close − 1.0×ATR14; skip unless natural credit ≥ $0.20.
Fill-confirmed entries only; one re-quote budget per week. Account PA3HAIILY8S9.
Realized P&L (void-adjusted)
$0.50
Max Risk / Lot
$1,000
Swan Breaches (13wk)
0/13w
Week
Strikes
Expiry
Credit
Status
2026-W36
750/740
2026-09-04
$0.00
skipped_credit natural credit 0.00 < gate 0.20
2026-W37
755/745
2026-09-11
$0.69
entered
EST: sleeve-book estimate from state ledger, void-unfilled corrections applied; broker-verified fills only count. Updated 2026-09-10 2:42 PM ET
Live Paper Trading Performance LIVE PAPER
23 trading days · Alpaca 1M window · through 2026-09-10
Trailing Days
23
Total Return
-2.09%
Sharpe
-1.88
Sortino
-2.22
Calmar
-5.45
Max DD
-3.79%
Trade Win Rate
30%
Profit Factor
0.65
Expectancy
$-4
Closed Trades
590
Strategy
Equity
Return
Sharpe
Sortino
Calmar
Max DD
Daily Up %
Best Day
Days
Hormuz Carry EST
$3,349
+11.27%
11.59
60.26
1176.59
-1.2%
67%
+3.9%
10
Shipping EST
$1,791
+10.65%
9.78
34.97
673.85
-1.8%
67%
+4.4%
10
Ndx Momentum EST
$2,023
+9.33%
12.89
1352.91
38145.17
-0.1%
60%
+5.0%
6
Jump Mirror EST
$4,350
+5.98%
10.32
—
49464.51
-0.3%
50%
+6.3%
3
Value Dip EST
$3,982
+5.97%
6.38
7.11
130.89
-2.5%
67%
+3.4%
10
Memory Rotation EST
$17,645
+2.94%
1.26
3.35
5.86
-6.1%
52%
+6.8%
24
BTC Regime Gate EST
$4,483
-0.99%
-0.57
-1.40
-5.00
-4.9%
38%
+5.8%
9
Bond Rotation EST
$7,058
-1.05%
-0.62
-0.88
-1.97
-5.5%
36%
+2.5%
23
Earnings Momentum EST
$6,305
-3.04%
-2.76
-5.29
-7.89
-4.7%
44%
+1.9%
17
Trump Tweet EST
$2,236
-5.72%
-4.54
-5.93
-9.15
-8.5%
22%
+3.5%
10
Bilbo Paper EST
$1,623
-11.90%
-5.47
-8.22
-5.22
-17.8%
36%
+3.6%
12
Maple EST
$3,015
-27.54%
-2.10
-2.01
-2.32
-41.8%
55%
+11.1%
23
Unattributed EST
$2,319
-32.88%
-3.01
-3.56
-2.47
-39.9%
36%
+10.3%
23
GPU Tilt EST
$211
-54.06%
3.84
16.48
-0.99
-101.3%
40%
+1077.1%
11
Atr Spread EST
$0
-92.37%
-2.37
-4.30
-1.07
-93.9%
35%
+94.9%
24
Benchmark Core EST
$-17
-1755.45%
-3.23
-0.96
-0.08+473093438922.48j
-1329.4%
30%
+13.2%
24
8-Bot Options Desk EST
$3,000
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5
Trade Quality (FIFO round-trips)
Strategy
Closed Trades
Win Rate
Profit Factor
Expectancy
W/L Ratio
Trades/wk
Hormuz Carry
4
75%
44.82
$3
14.94
0.9
Ndx Momentum
5
80%
29.68
$35
7.42
1.1
Jump Mirror
4
50%
6.06
$36
6.06
0.9
Memory Rotation
45
56%
1.16
$5
0.93
9.8
BTC Regime Gate
20
40%
0.46
$-2
0.69
4.3
Bond Rotation
27
18%
0.64
$-1
2.80
5.9
Earnings Momentum
3
33%
1.26
$11
2.53
0.7
Maple
188
28%
0.35
$-7
0.88
40.9
Unattributed
11
27%
0.38
$-102
1.02
2.4
GPU Tilt
283
25%
0.67
$-1
1.97
61.5
FIFO-matched Alpaca fills · excludes cash venues & dust · what a quant checks before trusting a Sharpe
Alpaca get_portfolio_history · EST fill-timeline × closes · not a backtest
EST P&L residual $-197.52 (-0.24% NAV) · BIL/SHV 0%
EST equity gap $19,118.83 (23.18% NAV) · desk allocation $3,000.00 · account NAV through 2026-09-10 · desk through 2026-09-10
Since First Live Session LIVE PAPER
Portfolio vs $VOO vs $GOOG — all indexed to 100 on 2026-08-10 (first live paper session, post-reset $100k account). Benchmarks: split-adjusted closes, same calendar dates.
Cumulative % Return
Portfolio$VOO$GOOG
+2%-3%-8%
Aug 10 '26Sep 1Sep 8 '26
Latest: Portfolio -0.2% · $VOO -0.7% · $GOOG -5.8% · touch or drag a finger across the chart to inspect any date · sources: Alpaca account history + Yahoo Finance daily closes
Capital Allocation · No Margin
Memory Rotation
15%
$4,783.26 EST
Bond Rotation
0%
$0.00 EST
DRAM
0%
$0.00 EST
VNQ Reversion
0%
$0.00 EST
Maple
0%
$0.00 EST
Earnings Momentum
0%
$2,979.57 EST
Hormuz Carry
0%
$0.00 EST
Ndx Momentum
0%
$0.00 EST
GPU Tilt
0%
$320.83 EST
BTC Regime Gate
0%
$0.00 EST
Braided-Delta
0%
$0.00 EST
Waterhole
0%
$0.00 EST
Benchmark Core
55%
$4,076.68 EST
Bilbo Paper
25%
$0.00 EST
Jump Mirror
5%
$4,294.93 EST
Available Cash: $66,215.99Total Deployed: $16,488.26 / $82,510.26