Super-Trader

PAPER TRADING ONLY
Last updated 2026-08-26 08:00 EST · data as of 2026-08-25
Portfolio Value
$84,420.29
● LIVE — Alpaca · updated 2026-08-26 8:00 AM EST
Today's P&L
$-431.85 (-0.51%)
Total Return (vs $100K)
$-15,579.71 (-15.58%)
Cash Available
$31,392.49

HMM Regime Overlay CURRENT POLICY

Regime
TRANSITIONAL
Confidence
74.4%
Memory Rotation 35% · Bond Rotation 25% · Trump Tweet 5% · DRAM 0% · Cash 35%
Regime/confidence from the latest daily snapshot; allocations resolved from current hmm_overlay policy · updated 2026-08-21 5:30 PM EST

Portfolio Risk Metrics LIVE PAPER

Sharpe
11.11
total vol risk
Sortino
28.75
downside only
Calmar
306.50
CAGR / MaxDD
Max DD
-0.8%
worst drawdown
Total Return
+11.68%
22 days live
Trade Win Rate
64%
67 wins / 104 closed
Sharpe penalizes all volatility · Sortino penalizes downside only · Calmar = CAGR / |Max Drawdown|. Updated hourly from tracked paper-account equity through 2026-08-25.

Strategy Summary 80/20 HOLDOUT

Chronological split by exit date · the final holdout is excluded from parameter optimization.
Full Sample 104 closed round-trips
Net Profit
$-15,508.38
all closed trades
Win Rate
64.42%
67 wins / 104 closed
Profit Factor
0.37
gross profit / gross loss
# of Trades
104
closed round-trips
Max Drawdown
$20,366.09
peak-to-trough decline
Avg Return
$-149.12
mean P&L per trade
Out-of-Sample · Held Back 21 of 104 (20.2% of sample)
Avg S/Trade
$-19.45▲ $162.47
OOS mean P&L
Win Rate
71.43%▲ 8.8pp
15 wins / 21 OOS
Profit Factor
0.56▲ 0.19
OOS gross profit / loss
Drawdown/Profit
N/A— N/A
OOS drawdown / net profit
Total Trades
21▼ 62
held-back round-trips
Edge Decay
▲ 51.02%
profit factor vs in-sample
small sample, deltas may be noisy
⚠ Fewer than 30 out-of-sample trades; results may not be statistically meaningful.

Cumulative Equity

In-sample Out-of-sample
train / test

Current Holdings ● LIVE — Alpaca

SymbolStrategyQtyAvg EntryCurrentMarket ValueUnrealized P&L
QQQ Bond Rotation 17.932 $713.79 $709.59 $12,724.41 $-75.17 (-0.59%)
DIG Memory Rotation 163.1254 $69.76 $64.20 $10,473.07 $-906.08 (-7.96%)
BIL Memory Rotation 113.807 $91.57 $91.63 $10,428.13 $6.78 (+0.07%)
AEM Maple 19.6348 $215.69 $222.18 $4,362.46 $127.49 (+3.01%)
WPM Maple 26.2187 $138.80 $161.78 $4,241.66 $602.51 (+16.56%)
ADSK — 10.1299 $254.03 $247.50 $2,507.15 $-66.19 (-2.57%)
CMG Earnings Momentum 61.5141 $34.72 $37.52 $2,307.89 $172.12 (+8.06%)
BAH Earnings Momentum 27.0316 $79.01 $73.83 $1,995.75 $-140.02 (-6.56%)
EXLS Earnings Momentum 29.6567 $36.00 $37.80 $1,120.88 $53.24 (+4.99%)
LMT Earnings Momentum 1.748 $610.78 $555.90 $971.70 $-95.94 (-8.99%)
VSXY — 5.8087 $86.98 $87.41 $507.74 $2.50 (+0.49%)
DG — 4.0531 $124.65 $122.49 $496.47 $-8.77 (-1.74%)
CRM — 2.4327 $207.68 $201.00 $488.98 $-16.25 (-3.22%)
RY Maple 0.8333 $208.71 $207.09 $172.57 $-1.35 (-0.78%)
TD Maple 0.8864 $120.55 $119.07 $105.55 $-1.32 (-1.23%)
BNS Maple 0.6879 $88.59 $93.44 $64.28 $3.34 (+5.48%)
ENB Maple 0.7207 $51.55 $49.97 $36.01 $-1.14 (-3.06%)
TRP Maple 0.3735 $64.33 $61.85 $23.10 $-0.93 (-3.85%)
Last updated 2026-08-26 8:00 AM EST · live from Alpaca paper account · “(deallocated)” = leftover position from a sleeve no longer allocated capital

Position History

Date (EST)SymbolSideQtyPriceStrategy
2026-08-25 9:31 PM BIL BUY 0.4885 $91.63 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 3:56 PM DIG BUY 0.4722 $66.30 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 12:06 PM BIL BUY 0.196 $91.62 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 10:00 AM DIG BUY 1.0591 $66.82 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:34 AM DIG BUY 11.0064 $67.45 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:34 AM BIL BUY 0.1562 $91.62 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:34 AM BIL SELL 7.0613 $91.61 Memory Rotation
2026-08-25 9:33 AM CRM BUY 2.4327 $207.68 —
2026-08-25 9:33 AM DG BUY 4.0531 $124.65 —
2026-08-25 9:33 AM VSXY BUY 5.8087 $86.98 —

Active Strategies

Allocated Sleeves · LIVE PAPER places paper-account orders; PAPER SIM places no orders
Memory Rotation LIVE PAPER
Leveraged momentum — SNDK / MU / TQQQ / DIG · Re-risk cap 25%→30% on/after 2026-08-29 only when 30Y 5-day yield change ≤ 0 bp
REBALANCE → DIG · momentum 12.48% · VIX 15.13
OFFENSIVE: DIG above SMA80 with 20d momentum=12.48%. VIX=15.1; vol-scaled weight=48.2% (20d realized vol=51.8%, target=25%) · Re-risk gate: DORMANT until 2026-08-29 · target vol 25%; eligible for 30% only when 30Y 5-day change is flat or down
Allocation 35% · deployed $20,901.20 (24.8% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-899.30
Holdings: DIG $10,473.07 · BIL $10,428.13
Updated 2026-08-21 5:30 PM EST
Maple Sleeve PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
Canadian blue-chip dividend diversification sleeve
— → ENB, TRP, RY, TD, BNS, AEM, WPM
Allocation 20% · account holdings $9,005.63 (10.7% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: +$728.60
Holdings: AEM $4,362.46 · WPM $4,241.66 · RY $172.57 · TD $105.55 · BNS $64.28 · ENB $36.01 · TRP $23.10
Updated 2026-08-22 4:42 PM EST
Bond Rotation LIVE PAPER
Top-1 126-day momentum · 15% vol target · Yield filter: 10Y 5-day change > +15 bp rotates SPY/QQQ winners to BIL (fail-open)
— → QQQ
Yield filter: enabled; latest saved signal predates filter evaluation — status pending next strategy run
Allocation 15% · deployed $12,724.41 (15.1% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-75.17
Holdings: QQQ $12,724.41
Updated 2026-08-21 5:30 PM EST
VNQ Reversion PAPER SIM · NO ORDERS
REIT mean-reversion sleeve — VNQ vs BIL
HOLD
HOLD in BIL/cash: RSI14 51.68 is between 35 and 65
Allocation 5% · account holdings $0.00 (0.0% of equity)
No positions currently held — sleeve rotates in and out
Updated 2026-08-21 5:31 PM EST
Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER
Post-earnings momentum — scanner 5:00 PM ET, GTC entries 5:05 PM, 6.5% target / 5.5% stop / 5-session time exit
LONG → GEHC, CMG
Allocation 15% · deployed $6,396.22 (7.6% of equity)
Unrealized P&L: $-10.60
Holdings: CMG $2,307.89 · BAH $1,995.75 · EXLS $1,120.88 · LMT $971.70
Updated 2026-08-21 5:05 PM EST
Signal-Only Paper · signals generated, no capital deployed
Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
WSB / social-mention signal scanner
Meme mania 67.1875 · 0 candidates · feeds: reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
Inverse Meme ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Long-only complement of the meme engine's price-confirmed WSB picks
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
Options ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
Wheel strategy — cash-secured puts / covered calls
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
Trump Tweet ACTIVE NOTIFICATION ONLY
1-min Truth Social poller — NOTIFICATION ONLY: alerts sent, trading disabled 2026-08-20, no orders placed
No pending trade
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
Inverse Crypto ACTIVE SIGNAL-ONLY
7 strategies tested — no alpha after costs
Last run 2026-08-25 11:05 PM EST
DRAM PAUSED SIGNAL-ONLY
PAUSED TRADING — signal-only paper simulation continues; Dynamic Regime-Adaptive Momentum with vol-scaled sizing + VIX-adaptive ATR trailing stop
Last run 2026-08-26 8:00 AM EST
Retired · no allocation, kept for historical context
Shipping RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Tanker sector rotation — INSW/NAT/FRO/SBLK/DHT/STNG · 14-day rebalance
Retired — kept for historical context
Geo Reversal RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Geopolitical reversal rotation — energy vs broad market on geo-risk score shifts
Retired — kept for historical context
VIX Regime RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
VIX regime recovery basket — 80% SPY / 20% QQQ when high-vol + low VIX + bull trend
Retired — kept for historical context
Value Dip RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
NASDAQ-100 worst performers — dynamic sourcing pipeline, 4-condition entry gate
Retired — kept for historical context
Polymarket Weather RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Weather prediction market signals (retired/deleted)
Retired — kept for historical context
Pre-Market Momentum RETIRED 0% ALLOCATION
Pre-market gap momentum scanner — allocation removed after live evaluation
Retired · last run 2026-08-25 9:12 PM EST

Meme Sentiment SIGNAL-ONLY / NOT VALIDATED / NO LIVE CAPITAL

Meme Mania
67.1875
Feeds Used
reddit, polymarket, kalshi
Feeds Missing
twitter
TickerMeme ScoreSuggested Weight
No candidates above threshold
signal-only; not validated; no live capital · updated 2026-08-21 5:31 PM

Earnings Calendar SCANNER

TickerEarnings DateDays UntilDecisionReason
Tuesday, 2026-08-25
ANF 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback 1.87% > 1.5% threshold (price above MA entry zone)
BOX 2026-08-25 (Tuesday) 0 (today) NO SETUP Pullback -0.12% and runup 0.67% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Wednesday, 2026-08-26
CRM 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day TRIGGERED Pullback -0.36% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 4.57% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
A 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.29% and runup 2.7% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBWI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -2.69% and runup 0.25% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BURL 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -1.36% and runup -9.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CRWD 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback -0.1% and runup -12.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
DCI 2026-08-26 (Wednesday) 1 day NO SETUP Pullback 0.81% and runup -3.02% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Thursday, 2026-08-27
ADSK 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback -1.19% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -1.07% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
DG 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.97% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup 3.61% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
AFRM 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 0.13% and runup -0.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BBY 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -0.74% and runup 3.6% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
BILI 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -1.44% and runup -7.84% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CHA 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback 1.5% and runup 6.05% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
CSIQ 2026-08-27 (Thursday) 2 days NO SETUP Pullback -2.14% and runup -9.01% pass; RSI unavailable; scanner marked no setup
Saturday, 2026-08-29
VSXY 2026-08-29 (Saturday) 4 days TRIGGERED Pullback 0.02% ≤ 1.5% threshold, runup -7.6% ≤ 10% cap, within 5-day window
Scanner: pullback ≤ 1.5%, runup ≤ 10%, RSI ≤ 70, entry window 5 days · Generated 2026-08-25 9:32 AM

Earnings Momentum LIVE PAPER

Trading Days Held
3 / 5
Open Legs
1 / 2
Signal
2026-08-21 5:05 PM
SymbolStatusEntryTargetStopCurrentUnrealized P&L
GEHC ORDER PENDING $74.82 (est.) $79.68 $70.70 — —
CMG OPEN $36.90 (est.) $39.30 $34.87 $37.52 $172.12 (+8.06%)
6.5% target · 5.5% stop · 5-session time exit · exit monitor 9:40 AM / 11:40 AM / 1:40 PM / 3:40 PM ET

⚡ VIX for Compute

GPU compute price index from Ornn Data — the "OCPI" measures real $/GPU-hour pricing across the spot market. Annualized volatility is our computed "VIX" for compute. Also live on Bloomberg Terminal.
Compute VIX (avg)
66.0%
annualized, all GPUs
H100 Spot
$2.97
/GPU-hour
3-Mo Trend
H100 daily index
GPUDaily Index $/hrLive Spot3-Mo ReturnAnn. Vol20D Momentum
A100 SXM4$1.08$1.08-14.6%38.3%+3.5%
B200$6.45$6.45+20.7%58.9%+12.1%
H100 SXM$2.97$2.97+4.1%62.4%+9.1%
H200$4.26$4.26+3.7%96.7%-13.3%
RTX 5090$0.53$0.53-37.6%73.4%+8.2%
LLM Token Index$/Mtok (blended)Updated
Anthropic$1.6362026-08-24
Openai$0.4292026-08-24
Google$0.3922026-08-24
Deepseek$0.0832026-08-24
Source: Ornn Data API (free tier, daily grain) · H100 volatility index announced Aug 25, 2026 · Updated daily by cron · Paper trading context only

Live Paper Trading Performance — since July 27, 2026 LIVE PAPER

Last updated August 25, 2026 · page generated August 26, 2026 at 08:00 AM ET
Days Live
22
Total Return
+11.68%
Sharpe
11.11
Sortino
28.75
Calmar
306.50
Max DD
-0.83%
Trade Win Rate
64%
StrategyEquityReturnSharpeSortinoCalmarMax DDDaily Up %Best DayDays
Maple $9,006 +47.25% 8.87 34.42 2331.29 -3.6% 77% +10.5% 22
Earnings Momentum $6,396 +9.53% 4.96 9.18 59.51 -3.1% 64% +2.9% 22
Memory Rotation $20,901 +5.91% 2.89 6.80 24.58 -3.8% 55% +4.6% 22
Bond Rotation $12,724 +4.20% 2.26 5.02 17.09 -3.5% 41% +3.4% 22
All metrics computed from actual tracked paper-account equity (state/per_strategy_equity) through August 25, 2026. Not a backtest.

Capital Allocation · No Margin

Memory Rotation
35%
$20,901.20
Bond Rotation
15%
$12,724.41
DRAM
0%
$0.00
VNQ Reversion
5%
$0.00
Maple
20%
$9,005.63
Earnings Momentum
15%
$6,396.22
Hormuz Carry
5%
$0.00
Ndx Momentum
5%
$0.00
Available Cash: $31,392.49 Total Deployed: $53,027.80 / $84,420.29
Zero-allocation/deallocated positions (pending liquidation): $4,000.34

Dram vs Memory Rotation — Backtest Comparison

DRAM is positioned as a capital-preservation variant: lowest drawdown of any risk-taking strategy. Universe selection bias applies (see signals/dynamic_regime.py). Bond Rotation is backtested over its own full 2007+ history (research/bond_rotation_backtest.py); backtest windows differ per row.
StrategyCAGRSharpeMax DDCalmarPeriod
DRAM85.5%2.25-13.4%6.391.5y
Memory Rotation687.6%2.90-35.3%19.481.5y
B&H QQQ27.4%1.17-22.8%1.201.5y
B&H BIL3.9%17.61-0.0%358.471.5y
Backtest comparison (research/dynamic_backtest_results.json). The live DRAM strategy trades a different universe and rebalances on different triggers. This is a research comparison, not a live performance record.
All trading is PAPER ONLY — no real capital at risk.
Generated 2026-08-26 08:00 EST